Baked goods: with large market capacity and high growth potential, the growth is driven by the dual attributes of substitute food + Leisure. 1) in 2020, the retail scale of baked goods in Chinese mainland was 235 billion 800 million yuan, ranking second in the world, and the per capita consumption was 7.28kg/ years. The market scale of 12201520 under the global average level reached 9.3%, and the expansion rate was obviously ahead of the global average level. CAGR 2) Under China's deep-rooted food culture, baked goods have long existed as non-staple food, bread accounts for a relatively low proportion, and cakes and pastries are the mainstream products. 3) Referring to Japan's experience, economic development, improved purchase channels, changes in the habits of the younger generation and the improvement of supply side efficiency have provided fertile ground for the development of China's baking industry. Considering the differences of the times and consumption characteristics, it is expected that the development of China's baking industry will be difficult to be driven by staple food like Japan, but the trend of substitute meals of package products under the fast-paced lifestyle has increased, and cakes and pastries, as leisure foods, have ushered in accelerated development, Catering and leisure attributes are expected to jointly drive the expansion of the industry.
Raw material side: steady growth and relatively mature development. 1) From the perspective of growth space, the development of baking flour, baking oil, cream, yeast and other raw materials in the downstream has been relatively mature. The scale CAGR in the past three to five years is basically about 10%, and it is expected to continue to grow steadily in the future. 2) From the perspective of competition pattern, the competition of basic raw materials such as baking flour, oil and low-end cream is relatively fierce, and the yeast market is highly concentrated and the pattern is firm. The key to future development is to continue to enhance the scale effect. Cream and other categories need to grasp the changes of market demand and pay attention to product upgrading.
Production side: Frozen baking is in the ascendant. 1) The essence of freeze baking is to replace manual production with industrial production and realize professional division of labor. 2) Technological progress and the improvement of cold chain logistics make frozen baking break through the development bottleneck. The demands of small b-end for cost reduction and efficiency, the consideration of chain baking brands for production efficiency, and the demand of Sam and other retail on-site baking channels for the supply chain all promote the application of frozen baking in the downstream. 3) We estimate that the factory scale of the 2B end of frozen baking will be 8-9 billion yuan in 2020, and it is expected to reach 25 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of more than 25%. The scale of frozen pastries is higher and the growth potential of frozen bread is greater. 2C terminal benefits from epidemic catalysis. It is estimated that the sales volume will be about 1.6 billion yuan in 2020 and is expected to reach 5.4 billion yuan in 2025. 4) In the early stage of industry development, there was less horizontal competition pressure among enterprises, and the core was to expand production on a large scale and consolidate the first mover advantage. In the long run, due to the complex customer structure and the limitation of sales radius, the pattern may be scattered. However, with reference to the overseas leading enterprise aryzta, expanding consumption scenarios and maximizing scale effect based on demand can support greater development space for enterprises.
2C end: Bakery expansion is blocked, and the short-term guarantee barrier is relatively high. 1) Compared with leisure products such as bittern, tea and coffee, the number of bakeries in China is significantly ahead, but the degree of chain is low and most of them are regional brands. The large store mode with high investment and relatively weak consumer stickiness put forward higher requirements for the operation of bakeries. The supply chain system is an important factor restricting the cross regional expansion of chain brands. Referring to McDonald's, building a perfect supply chain and improving the ability of standardized operation are the key to the future expansion of the brand. Xinxing bakery optimizes the single store model through low investment and streamlining categories. The replicability and product power of stores still need to be verified. 2) In packaging and baking, short-term bread meets consumers' requirements for freshness and health of baked goods, meets the trend of substitute meal of baked goods, and has better potential than long-term bread. The Category attribute determines that it has higher requirements for efficient supply chain and channel construction capacity, but it also leads to a clearer logic of improving the market concentration of short-term guarantee bread compared with long-term guarantee bread, and peach and plum have obvious advantages as a leader.
Investment suggestions: from the perspective of growth and competition, we are optimistic about the frozen baking track with high growth potential and low competitive pressure. We recommend Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , the leader with outstanding comprehensive strength, and the short-term guarantee leader with efficient supply chain Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) . We suggest paying attention to the Namchow Food Group(Shanghai) Co.Ltd(605339) , the benchmark of vegetable fat and cream Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology Co.Ltd(300915) .
Risk tip: China has repeated epidemics, food safety risks, sharp rise in raw material costs and intensified industry competition.
