\u3000\u3 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 215 Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) )
The new fast-frozen rice noodle catering channel is the blue ocean market in the red ocean, and the CAGR may reach 15% in the next 10 years. Compared with the retail channel, quick-frozen rice flour products started late in the catering channel, with rapid growth and low concentration. It is a blue ocean market in the red ocean. At present, the market scale is about 14.4 billion yuan, which is expected to reach 52.2 billion yuan in 2030, with CAGR of about 15%. Rice flour products exist in a variety of catering formats, but they are generally not signature dishes, self-made is time-consuming and laborious, and there is a large demand for third-party prefabrication and high feasibility. In addition, chain catering enterprises, takeout, group meals, rural banquets and other catering formats also have an increasing demand for fast meals and standardization.
Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) : independent from the missing system, it has cultivated the fast-frozen rice noodle catering channel for several years, and has outstanding resource advantages for key customers. The company has established the concept of "giving priority to key customers". Since cooperating with KFC in 2002, it has entered Wallace, Haidilao, zhenkung Fu, jiumaojiu and other well-known catering brands. Large chain restaurant enterprises require suppliers to have comprehensive capabilities such as customized R & D, flexible production and systematic quality control. They also need to pass multiple compliance inspections and daily surprise inspections. Qualification certification takes a long time and has certain entry barriers. Unless there is a major food safety accident, suppliers will not be changed easily. Qianwei's comprehensive strength has been certified by many parties, and the first mover advantage of major customers is significant.
Direct major customers have strong extensibility and lighthouse effect, and can feed back the company's R & D ability. The growth of old customers' stores + the increase of cooperative categories + the development of new customers can bring increment to the company. At the same time, the company has maintained a good on-time delivery, high-quality service and cost record for the customized production of key customers, which can play a good role in endorsement. In addition, cooperation with key customers can force the company to continuously optimize its product strength and improve its sense of market demand changes. On the basis of ordered products, the company can change the product form and promote it to the distribution channel as a standard product, so as to maximize benefits.
Optimize the mechanism and expand the growth space of distribution channels. In 2020, the company's distribution revenue was 605 million yuan, accounting for 64% of the revenue. In recent four years, CAGR reached 14.5%. The total number of dealers increased from 521 in 2017 to 907 in 2020. In order to better develop the waist catering market, the company will focus on supporting large businesses in the future, including providing sales personnel for dealers with more than one million yuan, assisting dealers in transformation, sorting out products and scripts, holding evaluation meetings, customer appreciation meetings, etc.
Prospect: large scene and large single product oriented, fried dough sticks still have room to tap, and steaming, frying and baking have the potential of large single products. The company has 368 SKUs, and the top ten single products account for 46% of the total revenue. Flexible production meets multiple SKUs and ensures the scale advantage of large single products. The company has accounted for more than 50% of the industrial fried dough sticks market, and is at the leading level in the industry in terms of product quality, category richness and cost performance. With the development of channels, deep cultivation of scenes and category innovation, the company continues to accelerate its penetration. In addition to fried dough sticks, the cost-effective steamed and fried dumplings launched by the company in 2021 for group meals, breakfasts and other scenes have achieved high-speed growth and have the potential to become a large single product. In addition, based on the baking products cooperated with Ruixing, the company plans to make key breakthroughs around the fast-growing new fast-food formats such as tims, Xicha and Helens. Cooking and baking products are expected to bring new growth poles.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 0.99, 1.18 and 1.62 respectively. Considering the growth potential of the company, a six-month target price of 48.6 yuan is given, corresponding to 30x PE in 2023.
Risk tip: the industry space assumption is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies; Price fluctuation of raw materials
