\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
Key investment points
Event: the company issued]2021 annual report, which realized an operating revenue of 5.99 billion yuan (+ 13.2%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 930 million yuan (+ 15.3%); Among them, 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 2.1 billion yuan (+ 28.3%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 330 million yuan (+ 21.5%) in a single quarter, which is in line with the disclosure of the performance express. In addition, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8.50 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
The growth of nuts was accelerated, and the intensive cultivation of channels continued to advance. 1. By category, sunflower seeds and nuts achieved operating revenue of 3.94 billion yuan (+ 5.9%) and 1.37 billion yuan (+ 43.8%) respectively. The traditional large magenta bag melon seeds still maintain their advantages under the joint drive of product quality upgrading and channel intensive cultivation optimization; The taste of blue bag melon seeds has been continuously innovated, and the trial marketing and promotion of new products of vine pepper melon seeds, sea salt melon seeds and orange peel melon seeds are in good condition. Building a product matrix around daily nuts, the annual sales of probiotic daily nuts and daily nut oatmeal in small blue bags exceeded 100 million yuan; Gift box packaging performed well during the Spring Festival and will continue to grow in the future. 2. From the perspective of different channels, direct sales, e-commerce and distribution achieved operating revenue of 920 million yuan (+ 6.4%) and 5.06 billion yuan (+ 14.5%) respectively. Continue to promote the channel intensive cultivation strategy. By the end of 2021, it had controlled 120000 terminal outlets and more than 1000 dealers through the digital platform; E-commerce returns to the main channel, breaks through new channels and realizes Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) resource coordination.
The transmission of melon seed price increase is smooth, and the profitability is further improved. 1. In 2021, the company’s overall gross profit margin was 32%, which remained basically stable, mainly due to: 1) the price increase covered the rise in the prices of raw materials and packaging materials. Since October 2021, the price of sunflower seeds, pumpkin seeds and small and fragrant melon seeds has been increased by 8% – 18%. The price system has been adjusted smoothly and has been transmitted to terminals and stores. 2) The scale effect gradually appears and improves profitability. 2. In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio was 10.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3pp; The rate of administrative expenses was 4.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2pp; The R & D expense rate and financial expense rate were 0.8% and – 0.5% respectively, which remained basically stable. 3. The overall net interest rate was 15.5%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3pp, and the profitability was further improved.
Organizational structure adjustment + channel force + equity incentive, with sufficient motivation for long-term growth. 1. Change the organization structure of Bu division to bu category; The cooperation efficiency between category Bu and sales Bu is improved to promote benign coordination between departments. 2. For the common development of all channels, it is planned to increase the number of terminals to 1million in the next 3-5 years, seize the development opportunities of new channels such as community group purchase, and consolidate the channel advantages. 3. The sixth phase of employee stock ownership plan will be implemented, and the participants will be no more than 213 senior executives and key employees, with an individual contribution of no more than 30.6 million yuan. The continuous implementation of equity incentive, with a wide range of incentives, helps to fully stimulate the motivation of employees and is conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.09 billion yuan, 1.26 billion yuan and 1.45 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 2.15 yuan, 2.49 yuan and 2.85 yuan respectively. The corresponding dynamic PE will be 27 times, 23 times and 20 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: channel expansion is not as expected; The price of raw materials may fluctuate sharply; Food safety risks.
