\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Events
The company released the main financial data of 2021 and the main operating conditions of the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the operating revenue was 19.971 billion yuan, an increase of 42.8% and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.313 billion yuan, an increase of 72.6%. It is estimated that the income of 21q4 is 2.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.9% and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 430 million yuan, a decrease of 29.6%. 2022q1 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 10.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 43% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 70%.
Key investment points
In 2021, it will come to a successful conclusion, with structural upgrading and accelerated development outside the province as the main line
Recently, the company announced that the growth rate of operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 reached 42.8% and 72.6% respectively, which ended successfully. Among them, the operating revenue / net profit attributable to parent company of 21q4 company decreased by 24.9% and 29.6% respectively year-on-year, with a significant decline month on month. The main reason is that the company has completed its annual tasks well before, and 21q4 company took the initiative to control goods under heavy structure. The total revenue and net profit of 21q4 superimposed 22q1 company continued to increase rapidly while the channel remained healthy, indicating that the operation quality of the company was steadily improving. In addition, in 2021, the 100 million yuan market of Fen Liquor increased to 22, and the sales of Zhuyeqing liquor in the southern core market increased by more than 120% year-on-year; The number of dealers outside the province increased by 30.5% year-on-year, and the number of controllable terminals increased to 1.05 million. The rapid development outside the province laid the foundation for subsequent operation.
22q1 revenue side performance meets expectations, profit side exceeds expectations
Previously, we estimated that 22q1 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) revenue was 10.4 billion, and the revenue side was in line with expectations; The profit side was slightly higher than expected, mainly because on the basis of the growth rate of blue and white series exceeding 50% in 21 years and the excellent performance in laobaifen Province, benefiting from the small impact of the epidemic on the main sales market, the superposition of medium and high price wines showed excellent performance: 1) during the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales of blue and white series were strong, and the growth rate of Q1 blue and white Fen was expected to be 60% +, among which the growth rate of blue and white 30 revival version led the whole series of products. Under the background of large volume of the Spring Festival, the price of blue and white series was strong and the inventory was benign; 2) Relying on product upgrading + market expansion around Shanxi + benefiting from the excellent performance of the medium and high price band during the Spring Festival, laobaifen continued its high-speed development trend and contributed to its performance in March; 3) Bofen adopts the contract system throughout the year. At present, it is in the process of controlling quantity and stabilizing price. At present, the market has strong expectations for the replacement and price increase of Bofen; 4) Improve the efficiency of cost investment. To sum up, under the control of the speed, the growth rate of Fenjiu in March of 22 increased as scheduled. Recently, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) channels have reported that the collection, dynamic sales and inventory are positive and healthy. The payment has been started in April. It is less affected by the epidemic and has strong business strength.
Development direction: take the promotion of brand power as the first, and anchor the goal of “one third of the world”
Primary objective: brand promotion; Overall marketing plan: 133238. The company will achieve the primary goal of brand improvement through four “focus” + four “persistence”: 1) focus on market structure optimization, product structure optimization, quality optimization and management improvement; We will strengthen strategic focus, deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises and persist in strengthening risk management. In the next step, Fenjiu marketing will focus on the overall reform strategy of “133238” Fenjiu marketing, that is, anchoring one goal (“one in three places”), fighting three battles (key battle of marketing systematization construction; key battle of product structure adjustment; key battle of brand value promotion), building three markets (focusing on large base market, East China market and South China market) Promote two major projects (“1s + 3M + 6p” international marketing system, Xinghua village brand / personalized brand strategy building project), stick to three indicators (Qinghua Fen Liquor sales index, Qinghua 20 terminal index, Qinghua Fen Liquor opinion leader group index), and achieve eight adherences (including adhering to Party construction to lead marketing, cultivating executive combat team, information construction, dealer structure optimization, etc.), and work together to write the chapter of manufacturer cooperation, enterprise development A new chapter of brand rise.
Beyond expectation logic: the revival version leads the high-end, the nationalization process is accelerated or beyond expectation, the revival version leads the high-end, the blue and white 40 layout is super high-end, and the income of blue and white may account for 40% – 50% of the Fen series. Blue and white series has made brilliant achievements by virtue of “the cultivation of aroma type in Bofen + excellent product quality + the mainstream consumer price band in the card position + about 10% – 15% high channel profit” – blue and white series maintained a high-speed growth of 40% – 60% in 17-19 years, achieved a growth of more than 30% in 20 years (revenue accounts for about 25% – 30%), and the revenue of 21h1 has reached 40%. Considering that the company’s current product strategy is “reaching the bottom of high control”, blue and white 40 China Dragon layout is ultra-high-end The launch of Qinghua 30 · revival version will further enhance the brand image and open the volume and price space of Qinghua 20. We expect that the compound growth rate of sales revenue of Qinghua series will be higher than that of secondary high-end liquor in the next 14th Five Year Plan period, and the proportion of Qinghua revenue in Fen liquor series may reach 40% – 50%.
To the south of the Yangtze River, the expansion speed outside the province may exceed expectations. From 2016 to 2020, the CAGR of the company’s sales revenue outside the province was 42.45%, far exceeding the expansion speed in the province, and the nationalization strategy has achieved initial results. We believe that there are two highlights in the development outside the province in the future: 1) the market around Shanxi: the overall market space of the sector around Shanxi is about 180 billion yuan, and the share of Fenjiu market is less than 3%. With the upgrading of product structure dominated by qinghuafen and the further sinking of channels, the upgrading of product structure promotes the release of performance, The sector around Shanxi still has great development potential. 2) Southern market: the market space in the south of the Yangtze River is large and the consumption price is high. Previously, the foundation of Fenjiu was relatively weak. With the southern market becoming the company’s next key market and putting forward the goal of an average growth rate of more than 50% in three years, the market performance outside the province may exceed expectations in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation
We believe that Fenjiu will benefit from the strong performance of Qinghua and the accelerated expansion outside the province. At the same time, considering the low performance base of the company affected by the epidemic in 2020 and the company’s revenue target of 30% + in 2021, the revenue growth rate from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 42.8%, 35.2% and 31.2% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 72.3%, 46.7% and 38.0% respectively; EPS is 4.3, 6.4 and 8.8 yuan / share respectively; PE was 53, 36 and 26 times respectively. In the long run, the performance has strong growth, the current valuation is cost-effective, and the buy rating is maintained.
Catalyst: continuous consumption upgrading and smooth introduction of high priced products;
Risk warning: the two outbreak of China’s epidemic situation affects the whole Baijiu sale of liquor. The sales of high-end liquor was less than expected; Management change wind
