\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 5.985 billion yuan, yoy + 13.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 929 million yuan, yoy + 15.35%; Deduct 799 million yuan of non parent net profit, yoy + 15.95%. In Q4 alone, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 2.103 billion yuan, yoy + 28.39%; Net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 334 million, yoy + 21.46%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 308 million yuan, yoy + 31.57%.
Q4 revenue accelerated and nuts grew brightly. The company's revenue of 21q1-q4 was 1.379 billion yuan, 1.001 billion yuan, 1.502 billion yuan and 2.103 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 20.22%, - 12.70%, + 10.71% and + 28.33% respectively. We expect that the acceleration of Q4 revenue is mainly due to the pre Spring Festival, the increase of price, the improvement of channel enthusiasm and the expansion of nut group purchase channel. In terms of products, the revenue of Guokui in 21 years was 3.943 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.86%, and the growth rate in the first and second half of the year was - 4.29% / 14.26%. Among them, the upgrading of red bag raw materials, the improvement of weak markets, the intensive cultivation of third and fourth tier and county and township markets, the expansion of overseas markets, the continuous breakthrough of blue bag flavor, the continuous enrichment of product matrix, channel expansion, brand joint branding, product customization, etc. all achieved sustained growth. The annual income of nuts in the 21st year was 1.366 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43.82%. The growth rate in the first and second half of the year was 50.52% / 40.63%, of which the sales of small yellow bags were nearly 1 billion, and the sales of small blue bags and daily nut oatmeal exceeded 100 million. In terms of channels, in 2021, the channel intensive cultivation strategy achieved initial results. The channel digital platform controlled nearly 120000 terminal outlets. At the same time, it continued to expand new channels, and made positive breakthroughs in new scenes and new channels such as to-b group purchase business, catering channel cooperation and nutritional catering business. In terms of regions, the south, north, East, e-commerce and overseas increased by 3.56%, 21.70%, 18.78%, 11.03% and 10.16% respectively. The adjustment effect of e-commerce sector is remarkable.
The gross profit margin increased significantly and the cost investment was stable. The gross profit margin of 21q4 was 33.43%, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.24pct and a month on month increase of + 1.30pct. The gross profit margin of sunflower seeds was + 0.78pct, nuts was + 0.97pct and the overall gross profit margin was + 0.06pct. It is expected that the main reasons are the upgrading of product structure, scale effect and price increase. The sales expense rate of 21q4 company is 12.42%, year-on-year + 5.59pct, and the sales expense rate of the company in 21 years is 10.10%, year-on-year + 0.33pct. It is expected that the company will increase marketing investment in peak season, and the annual cost investment is relatively stable. Overall, the net interest rate of 21q4 company was 15.90%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.90pct; The net interest rate of 21 years was 15.52%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.29pct.
Products and channels continue to fission and have support for long-term development. Products: create the first high-end brand of "Kui Zhen", and launch new flavors such as rattan pepper melon seeds, sea melon seeds and orange peel melon seeds in blue bag. Nuts take daily nuts as the strategic focus, create a nut gift product matrix, and incubate new high-end nuts and flavor nuts. In terms of channels: continue to promote the intensive cultivation of channels, build millions of terminals, differentiate products and marketing schemes, promote the promotion of vulnerable markets and the penetration of county and township channels, promote new channels such as 2B, catering and community group purchase, clarify the positioning of e-commerce channels, and focus on the Southeast Asian market overseas.
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating. Considering that the epidemic situation stimulates Guokui's short-term dynamic sales and supports its long-term growth, we raised our profit forecast. It is expected that the company's revenue in 22-24 years will be 7.071/81.76/9.324 billion yuan respectively, the net profit will be 1.146/13.48/1.541 billion yuan respectively (1.122/1.341 billion yuan respectively in the previous 22 and 23 years), and the EPS will be 2.26/2.66/3.04 yuan respectively (2.21/2.64 yuan respectively in the previous 22 and 23 years), maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: new product sales are less than expected, channel expansion is less than expected, and food safety events.
