\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 586 Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) )
The company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years increased by 295% year-on-year, and the boom of 22q1 declined
The company released the annual report for 21 years and the first quarterly report for 22 years. In 21 years, the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.92/1.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.7% / 295%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 1.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 365%, close to the lower limit of performance forecast. Among them, Q4 achieved revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.83/0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 25% / - 60%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 79 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of -. 22q1 realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 1.78/145 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.2% / - 59% respectively, deducting net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 143 million, with a year-on-year decrease of - 43%.
The volume and price of glass have risen in the past 21 years, and the pressure on the demand of 22q1 has led to a decline in the price
In the 21st year, the company's glass business realized a revenue of 4.64 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 57.8%. The sales of Technology / float / deep processing and energy-saving glass were 13.22 million heavy boxes / 20.39 million heavy boxes / 4.43 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.8% / + 7.6% / + 12.9% respectively. It is estimated that the comprehensive average price of technology and float glass was 127 yuan / weight box, with a year-on-year increase of + 40 yuan. The volume and price of the main business of glass increased simultaneously. The chemical business achieved a revenue of 2.03 billion yuan in 2021, mainly benefiting from the rise in the price of soda ash. The sales volume was 1.319 million tons, a year-on-year increase of - 15%, and the unit price increased by 44% year-on-year to 1539 yuan / ton. We estimate that the average price of 22q1 float white glass is 114 yuan / heavy container, which is basically the same year-on-year, with a month on month decrease of 7 yuan / heavy container, mainly due to the relatively low demand. The price of 22q1 heavy alkali is about 2900 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 19%, but a year-on-year increase of 82%. The increase in price drives the growth of 22q1 revenue. Subsequently, we judge that the demand side may gradually pick up, and the price may still have room to rise.
The gross profit margin increased significantly in 21 years, 22q1 was temporarily under pressure, and the subsequent cost side is expected to decline marginally
The company achieved an overall gross profit margin of 34.3% in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 14.1pct, of which the gross profit margin of Technology / float glass / soda ash business was 46.9% / 40.4% / 18.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 20.3 / + 19.8 / + 3.8pct respectively, mainly benefiting from the price increase; In 22q1, due to the weakening of glass prices and rising costs, the gross profit margin decreased by 14 / 12pct year-on-year / month on month respectively, reaching 16.2%. During the 21-year period, the expense rate was 11.6%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1pct, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate was - 0.1 / + 0.9 / + 0.2 / - 1.2pct respectively year-on-year. The increase in the administrative expense rate was mainly due to the year-on-year increase in employee compensation, and the decrease in the financial expense rate was mainly due to the increase in the use efficiency of the company's funds and the decrease in borrowings. Finally, the net interest rate was 19.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 12.1pct, but the net interest rate of 22q1 was only 8.2%. We judge that with the improvement of production capacity operation efficiency, the cost side is expected to decline marginally, or make the profit gradually improve.
Optimistic about the medium and long-term growth of the company's photovoltaic glass, and share repurchase shows development confidence
The company has the technical advantages of two different process routes in photovoltaic glass. Ningxia calendered glass and Malaysia thin film module back sector glass have been ignited successively, which will contribute new increment in 22 years, and is optimistic about the medium and long-term growth of the company's photovoltaic glass. The company plans to buy back the company's shares of RMB 100150 million for employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive to demonstrate development confidence. Considering the decline of glass price, we lowered the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from 22 to 23 years to RMB 1.10/1.4 billion (the previous value was RMB 2.80/3.36 billion), and increased the forecast of net profit for 24 years to RMB 1.86 billion. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, we gave the company a 22-year 13X target PE with a target price of RMB 10.01 (the previous value was RMB 15.68) and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the demand recovery is less than expected, the cost side continues to rise, and the production capacity of photovoltaic glass is less than expected.
