\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 99 Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) )
Core conclusion
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, and achieved a revenue of 2.607 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 23.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 758 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.2%; The gross profit margin was 44.4%, with a year-on-year increase of -5.4pct; The net interest rate was 29.1%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.2pct. Among them, 21q4 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 140 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 19.5% / – 23.9% respectively. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. At the same time, the company released the performance forecast of Q1 in 2022. Affected by the epidemic, the price of superimposed and finalized carbon fiber products decreased year-on-year. 22q1 is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 207 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 5.4%.
The price reduction of carbon fiber is superimposed on the price increase of carbon fiber raw materials. During the reporting period, the rapid rise of raw material prices has greatly suppressed the release of profits. The average purchase price of raw material acrylonitrile of the company in 21 years was 12.8 yuan / kg, a year-on-year increase of + 63%; The average price of resin was 33.1 yuan / kg, a year-on-year increase of + 9%. At the same time, affected by the military pricing policy, the selling price and gross profit margin of finalized carbon fiber products have decreased; Due to the shortage of raw materials, the order delivery of carbon beam is insufficient, which affects the profit. The gross profit margin of carbon fiber and fabric / carbon beam / prepreg of the company in 21 years was 70.0% / 15.1% / 28.2% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 5.2 / – 6.6 / + 0.2pct respectively.
Steady progress was made in production capacity, and multi tow coordination enhanced the stability of profitability. In the 21st year, the company’s high-strength, high-modulus and military civilian integration carbon fiber high-end product raising and investment project was successfully completed and put into operation, and the carbon fiber sales volume increased by + 7% to 1832 tons year-on-year. Baotou phase I project with an annual output of 4000 tons will be accelerated. It is planned to be completed and put into operation within the year. In the future, a product structure with coexistence of products of various tow specifications and matching of high and low ends will be formed. At present, the 30 t / a m55j, the 1000 t / a t700g / t800h and 1.7 million M carbon beam of the experimental line under construction are expected to be gradually completed in 22 years, and the incremental elasticity of subsequent production capacity is expected to continue to improve the company’s profits.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic that the company will continue to expand the space for high-end applications in the military and civilian fields. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.6, 4.0 and 4.3 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 980, 1.20 and 1.47 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 188, 2.30 and 2.83 yuan respectively. At present, the corresponding share price of PE is 28, 23 and 18 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: carbon fiber demand is lower than expected, production expansion progress is lower than expected, raw material price fluctuation is higher than expected, and production capacity is too concentrated, resulting in short-term oversupply.
