\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 290 Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) )
Event:
The company released its annual report for 2021: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.707 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 77.22%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 398 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 120.49%); Among them, in the single quarter of 2021q4, the company realized a revenue of 510 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 72.94% and a month on month increase of 6.69%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 132 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 183.22% and a month on month increase of 17.15%).
The performance in 2021 was in line with expectations, and the new energy business performed well. The proportion of the company’s revenue in the new energy industry further increased compared with that in 2020, and the products continued to make breakthroughs in the downstream industries, especially in the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic power generation, wind power generation, energy storage and other industries. The company’s product structure optimization was superimposed to drive the high growth of the company’s performance. In 2021, the company sold 8.78 million IGBT modules (a year-on-year increase of 67.85%). In terms of business, IGBT module business achieved a revenue of 1.595 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 74.99%), a gross profit margin of 37.14% (a year-on-year increase of 5.15 PCT), a revenue of 101 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 110.88%) and a gross profit margin of 27.19% (a year-on-year increase of 6.42 PCT). In terms of downstream industries, the new energy industry performed well. The revenue of industrial control and power supply industry was 1.065 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 50.60%), the revenue of new energy industry was 571 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 165.95%), and the revenue of frequency conversion white appliances and other industries was 60 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 59.48%). The company’s ability to control expenses remained stable. In 2021, the company’s expense rate (excluding R & D) was 4.30% (a year-on-year increase of 0.26pct), of which the rates of sales, management (excluding R & D) and financial expenses were 1.43% (a year-on-year decrease of 0.12pct), 3.02% (a year-on-year increase of 0.39pct) and – 0.15% (a year-on-year decrease of 0.01pct).
R & D multi-point flowering, and the growth power of domestic IGBT module leader is sufficient. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the company’s performance growth may come from: (1) the continuous landscape of downstream new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and energy storage, and the business volume improvement opportunities brought by the further improvement of the company’s self built module packaging capacity; (2) The product structure was further optimized and the profitability of new products was improved. In terms of R & D, the company spent 110 million yuan on R & D in 2021 (a year-on-year increase of 42.95%). In the field of new energy vehicles, (1) the company’s vehicle specification level IGBT module of electric drive system continues to be in large quantity. In 2021, it will support more than Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) new energy vehicles, including more than 150000 class a vehicles; (2) Based on the sixth generation trench field stop technology, the company has added a number of fixed points for the 650V / 750V vehicle specification level IGBT module and the main motor controller platform of double electric control hybrid and pure electric vehicle, and a number of fixed points for the main motor controller project of 800V system pure electric vehicle for 1200V vehicle specification level IGBT module, which will provide a continuous driving force for the sales growth of the company’s new energy vehicle IGBT module from 2023 to 2029; (3) The company has successfully developed a new generation of 650V / 750V / 1200V IGBT chips based on the seventh generation micro trench field stop technology. It is expected to start mass supply in 2022. At the same time, 1200V and 1700V IGBT chips based on the sixth generation trench field stop technology have achieved mass production on the 12 inch production line, and the output of 12 inch IGBT chips has increased rapidly. In the field of photovoltaic power generation, the company uses its own 650V / 1200V IGBT chips and modules and discrete devices supporting fast recovery diode chips for mass installation and application in China’s mainstream photovoltaic inverter customers. It is expected that the market share will increase rapidly in 2022. In the field of SiC, in the field of new energy vehicles, the company has added several main motor controller projects of 800V system using full SiC MOSFET modules, which will provide a continuous driving force for the company’s SiC module sales growth from 2023 to 2029. Various SiC modules launched by the company in locomotive traction auxiliary power supply system, new energy vehicle industry controller and photovoltaic industry have been further promoted and applied.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is one of the top ten IGBT module manufacturers in the world and the first in China. It continues to increase its research and development, expand its product categories, raise funds and invest in the field of 3300v and above high-voltage IGBT and SiC, further enrich its product line and improve its competitiveness. The company strengthens the layout of new business, and the capacity expansion superimposes the high boom demand of the downstream market. It is expected to fully benefit from the acceleration of domestic substitution. We raised the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2022 will be 646 (+ 0.03) / 930 (+ 0.69) / 1.267 billion yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 3.79/5.45/7.43 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding current PE valuation will be 85 / 59 / 43 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the downstream demand is less than the expected risk; The company’s new product R & D and customer introduction progress is less than expected risk; The construction progress of the fixed increase project is less than the expected risk; Technical iteration is less than expected risk; Industry competition intensifies risks.
