\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 126 National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) )
Events
The company released its annual report for 2021 on April 12. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68%, and a net profit attributable to the parent after deducting non-profit of – 130 million yuan, a loss reduction of 150 million yuan compared with 2020, with a loss reduction range of 53%. The increase in net profit attributable to the parent company was mainly due to non recurring income of RMB 280 million and government subsidies of RMB 290 million.
Brief comment
Domestic substitution continued to make progress, technology continued to make breakthroughs, and the revenue of 300mm silicon wafer increased by 118%
1) the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 16%, with a year-on-year increase of 3PCT. In terms of products, the company’s 300mm silicon wafer revenue was 690 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 118%, and the gross profit margin was – 6%, with a year-on-year increase of 29pct; For silicon wafers of 200mm and below (including SOI silicon wafers), the revenue was 1.42 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21%, and the gross profit margin was 21.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3pct. The growth of 12 inch revenue and gross profit margin mainly comes from the breakthrough of technology users, the rapid increase of downstream penetration and the appearance of scale effect.
2) the company has made great breakthroughs in the improvement of technical capability and product certification of 300mm semiconductor silicon wafer: it has successfully passed the technical certification of 14nm logic 300mm silicon wafer and realized the batch supply of 300mm semiconductor silicon wafer for 14nm process node application; Successfully developed and verified 300mm semiconductor silicon wafer for 19nm DRAM; Successfully passed the certification of 300mm polishing wafer for 64 layer and 128 layer 3dnand applications, and realized mass supply.
3) the subsidiary Shanghai Xinsheng 300mm semiconductor silicon wafer production capacity has completed the installation and construction of 300000 pieces / month, and started the production expansion construction of 300000 pieces / month; The total production capacity of the subsidiary Xinao technology and okmetic200mm and below polishing and epitaxial wafers exceeds 400000 pieces / month; The total capacity of SOI silicon wafers of 200mm and below exceeds 50000 pieces / month.
The prosperity of silicon wafer industry has continued for 22-23 years, and the production capacity is in short supply. The company is expected to continue to benefit. The high capital expenditure of downstream wafer factories has driven the growth of silicon wafer demand, and the asset expenditure of wafer factories has increased for three consecutive years, but the expansion of silicon wafer factories lags behind. It is expected that the silicon wafer production capacity will continue to be in short supply in 202223. The expansion of large factories such as universal crystal and sumco will release their production capacity in the second half of 23, and the price increase of sumco, the world’s second-largest silicon wafer factory, is expected to continue until at least 2024. We believe that the domestic company is expected to accelerate the replacement of production capacity under the background of large supply.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
As the industry leader, the company’s penetration rate has increased rapidly under the high climate of the industry. It is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.5/48/5 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, an increase of 11% / 21% from 22 to 23, and a year-on-year increase of 37% / 27% / 26%. Considering the subsequent continuous government subsidies and the appearance of scale effect, the company’s return to parent net profit has been increased to 240 / 360 / 530 million yuan, corresponding to 17 / 13 / 10 times of PS and 252 / 165 / 114 times of PE, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
R & D progress is less than expected; The provision for impairment of continuous production expansion equipment leads to the decline of profitability; Risk of lifting the ban.
