\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 311 Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) )
Dragged down by the aquaculture business, the performance of 2021 and 2022q1 decreased by 36.7% and 71.6% respectively.
The company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022: in 2021, the operating revenue was 86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.596 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.7%; In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 19.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 200 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 71.6%. The decline of the company’s performance was mainly dragged down by the pig breeding business. In 2021, the income from other businesses excluding pig breeding was 81.357 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.492 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.97%; The net profit of 2022q1 company excluding other businesses of pig breeding is about 500 million yuan, which is basically the same as that of the same period last year.
The company’s feed sales continued to grow rapidly, and the focus shifted to benefit improvement in 2022.
In 2021, the company exported 18.77 million tons of feed, a year-on-year increase of 28%, significantly higher than the growth rate of 16.1% in the national feed industry. By category, the company sold 9.44 million tons of poultry, an increase of 11% year-on-year. By expanding cooperation with large-scale breeding plants and one-stop breeding companies, the company provided customized products and breeding schemes, and still achieved contrarian growth against the background of the decline of national demand for poultry; The company’s pig feed sales volume was 4.6 million tons, doubled year-on-year, and the brand recognition of pig feed continued to improve. The key sales areas were further expanded from South China and central China to North China, southwest, northwest and other regions, and quickly obtained product competitive advantages in new markets, realizing the rapid growth far exceeding the industry; The company sold 4.67 million tons of aquatic feed, with a year-on-year increase of 21%. Among them, ordinary fish feed increased by 21% year-on-year, shrimp and crab feed increased by 35% year-on-year, and the sales of special fish feed were basically flat due to the low demand. In 2022q1, the company’s feed sales volume was 4.2 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 20%. The feed business continued to expand rapidly. Among them, the sales volume of aquatic feed increased by more than 20%, about 30% of pig feed and 15% of poultry feed. We expect that the company’s external feed sales volume is expected to reach 22.71 million tons in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 21%. Affected by the rising price of raw materials and the downturn of breeding end, the gross profit margin of the company’s feed business was 9.08% in 2021, down 1.24 percentage points year-on-year. In 2022, the company will focus more on the improvement of benefits. In the face of the sharp rise in the price of raw materials after the Spring Festival, the company actively raised the sales price of feed and realized the net profit per ton, which is basically the same as that in 2021.
In 2021, 2 million pigs will be slaughtered, and the current breeding cost will be reduced to 16 yuan / kg.
In 2021, the number of pigs sold by the company was about 2 million, doubling year-on-year, realizing a pig business income of 4.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%. As the company’s own breeding system has not been fully established, the company’s pigs have been mainly fattened by purchasing piglets from abroad. Affected by the high price of purchased piglets and the sharp drop in pig prices, the company’s pig breeding business lost 896 million yuan in 2021. The company’s pig breeding team has professional breeding technology, veterinary technology and environmental protection treatment technology. The breeding survival rate in the fattening stage exceeds 90%. Combined with the R & D and scale advantages of the company’s feed end, the pig breeding cost has been reduced to 16 yuan / kg. From a medium-term and long-term perspective, the company’s cost has further downward space. We expect that the pig price will remain at the bottom in 2022, and the pig price may enter a new upward channel in 2023. The company is expected to benefit from a new round of upward cycle of pig price.
Seedlings and animal protection grew rapidly and continued to build core competitiveness.
In 2021, the company achieved seed and seedling business income of 855 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.3%. Aiming at the core problem of the degradation of germplasm resources in the aquatic seed industry, the company has developed and launched a variety of new national aquatic varieties such as Litopenaeus vannamei “haixingnong No. 2” shrimp seedlings and long pearl hybrid mandarin fish. The Litopenaeus vannamei “haixingnong No. 2” was bred by using multiple parent shrimp populations introduced from different regions of the world, taking the growth and survival rate as the breeding goal, using family BLUP breeding technology combined with molecular assisted breeding technology for five consecutive generations; Compared with common shrimp seedlings, “haixingnong 2” has the characteristics of fast growth, strong stress resistance and high survival rate. In 2021, the company realized a dynamic insurance revenue of 892 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, a gross profit margin of 50.85%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.27 percentage points. Among them, the income from aquatic animal protection was 676 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.5% and a gross profit margin of 54.1%; The income from animal and poultry insurance was 216 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 66.3% and a gross profit margin of 40.7%. The company continues to promote the “thousand store plan” of the core breeding regional service station. By integrating the advantages of the company’s industrial chain, the company establishes a comprehensive service platform of industry advanced products and technologies, provides breeding technical services for farmers, expands the company’s leading advantages in the industry, and establishes the entry threshold for livestock and poultry feed and breeding services.
Investment advice
The company is a leading enterprise in China’s feed industry, with complete feed categories, clear product power and excellent core competitiveness. The company continues to grow through the cycle, and the negative impact of outsourcing piglets ends in 2021. We expect that from 2022 to 2024, the company’s main business income will reach 106466 billion yuan, 124932 billion yuan and 150063 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, 17.3% and 20.1% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 2.361 billion yuan, 3.927 billion yuan and 6.362 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47.9%, 66.4% and 62.0% respectively, corresponding to earnings per share of 1.42 yuan, 2.36 yuan and 3.83 yuan. We give the company 30 times PE in 2023, with a reasonable valuation of 70.8 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating unchanged.
Risk tips
Epidemic situation; Pig prices fell sharply.
