\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
Event: Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) released the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the operating revenue reached 5.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 929 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.35%. Among them, 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 2.103 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 28.33%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 334 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.46%.
Focusing on category development, nuts continue to develop. 1) By product: in 2021, sunflower seeds / nuts / other products achieved revenue of RMB 3.943/13.66/675 billion respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 5.86% / + 43.82% / + 9.94%. The company focused on category development. The melon seed business increased steadily, and the nut business maintained a high growth rate. Among them, the daily nut channel of Xiaohuang bag has been expanded smoothly, the consumption scene has been continuously enriched, and the active investment in promotion and publicity has been superimposed. The annual tax included sales of the product has reached nearly 1 billion yuan. The small blue bag probiotic products continuously improve the product power through independent research and development of strains, and the tax included sales in 2021 exceeded 100 million yuan. The daily nut oatmeal actively develops new flavors, and the annual sales including tax exceed 100 million yuan. The roof box version of the daily nut gift box increased the penetration of the third and fourth tier cities, and also contributed to the growth of nut categories. 2) By Region: in 2021, the southern / northern / Eastern / e-commerce / overseas achieved revenue of RMB 1.935/12.13/16.12/5.70/518 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.56% / + 21.70% / + 18.78% / + 11.03% / + 10.16%. The company has deep channel advantages, and actively expand to-b group purchase business, catering channel cooperation and other new channels; By the end of 2021, it has more than 980 dealers in China and more than 50 overseas.
Under the scale effect, the gross profit margin rises, and the sales expenses increase investment. 1) In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 31.95%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.06 PCTs, of which the gross profit margin of sunflower seeds / nuts was 34.13% / 29.26%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.78 PCTs / + 0.97 PCTs, mainly due to the scale effect. 2) The annual sales expense ratio in 2021 was 10.10%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.33pct. Mainly due to the company’s increased publicity and promotion efforts. The annual management expense ratio in 2021 was 4.44%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.15pct. 4) Overall, the company’s net interest rate in 2021 was 15.52%, up + 030pct year-on-year, and the annual profitability was stable.
The nut business continues to make efforts, and the profit elasticity is expected to be released. Looking forward to 2022, 1) on the product side, melon seed business focuses on quality improvement and actively explores the high-end market; The second growth curve of nuts is gradually mature and is expected to continue in 2022. 2) On the channel side, the company’s million terminal strategy continues to be promoted, and the intensive cultivation of the channel is expected to further open the space for performance growth. 3) On the profit side, the ex factory price of sunflower seeds and other products increased by 8% – 18% in October of 21. Under the smooth transmission of the price increase, the company is expected to release the performance elasticity in 22 years.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: maintain the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company in 20222023 to be 1.204/1.385 billion yuan, increase the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company in 2024 to be 1.577 billion yuan, equivalent to EPS of 2.37/2.73/3.11 yuan in 20222024, and maintain the “buy” rating corresponding to PE of 22-24 years.
Risk warning: raw material cost fluctuation; The growth of core products did not meet expectations.
