\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 531 Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 8.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.42%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.76%; In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 278 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.56%; It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 0.08 yuan per share (including tax).
The sales volume of wind towers has increased steadily, and the scale and utilization hours of grid connected wind farms have increased, resulting in a high increase in on grid power. The sales scale of the company's wind tower and related products increased slightly. In 2021, the sales volume of wind tower increased by + 6.13% year-on-year to 626500 tons, the unit price decreased slightly by 3.45% to 8264 yuan / ton, and the operating revenue increased by + 2.47% year-on-year to 5.177 billion yuan; The gross profit margin decreased by 5.24 PCT to 12.07% year-on-year, mainly due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials such as steel and the intensification of industrial competition, which put pressure on profitability at different stages. Among blade products, the sales volume of blades increased from - 16.43% to 2675 pieces year-on-year, the sales volume of molds increased to 61 sets, and the operating revenue of the sector increased from - 17.58% to 1.781 billion yuan year-on-year. The operation power generation of wind farms has achieved rapid growth. By the end of 2021, the cumulative grid connected scale is 884mw, and the significant improvement of operation efficiency has promoted the on grid power to + 47.29% to 2.091 billion kwh year-on-year, driving the operating revenue of the sector to + 47.94% to 1.051 billion yuan year-on-year. The increase of utilization hours has also increased the gross profit margin by 3.47 PCT to 70% year-on-year.
The expansion of tower capacity continues, and the "double sea" strategy ensures shipment and profitability. In 2021, the company has preliminarily completed the nationwide capacity layout. As of April 2022, the tower capacity is about 900000 T / A. with the completion and operation of subsequent Shayang (120000 T / a), Qian'an (100000 t / a) and Hepu (100000 t / a) projects, the tower capacity of the company will be increased to 1.2 million T / a by the end of 2022. In addition, the company is steadily promoting the construction of offshore bases in Germany and Sheyang (with a total capacity of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons / year), and will carry out a new round of "double sea" layout in 2022, focusing on coastal provinces (Jiangsu, Guangdong / Guangxi and Fujian), so as to ensure the continuous growth of tower shipment and the maintenance of profitability.
Accelerate the expansion of zero carbon industrial sector, accelerate the development and construction of wind power resources, and provide new performance increment. By the end of 2021, the cumulative scale of grid connected wind farms of the company has reached 884mw. It is expected that the full capacity grid connection of Wulanchabu 500MW project will be completed in 2022; The follow-up company is expected to continue to exchange the construction of industrial park for new energy development indicators (for example, the Shayang wind power equipment Industrial Park project won the construction index award of 600MW new energy project in Hubei Province) organically combine the company's equipment manufacturing and zero carbon industry sector, and continuously improve the operation efficiency of wind power plant through its own professional ability, so as to provide new performance increment for the follow-up development of the company.
Maintain the rhythm of "buying": according to the rhythm of the company's tower capacity expansion and the development progress of wind power resources, we raised the profit forecast for 22-23 years and introduced the profit forecast for 24 years. It is expected that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be RMB 1.576/19.64/2.525 billion (up 5% / up 12% / new), corresponding to eps0 87 / 1.09/1.40 yuan. The current share price corresponds to 14 / 11 / 9 times of PE in 22-24 years. The company's tower capacity continued to expand, and the "double sea" strategy guaranteed profitability. At the same time, the development of wind power plant resources accelerated the landing, contributed new performance increments, and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the installed capacity of wind power is less than expected, the risk of policy changes in the new energy industry, the risk of demand fluctuations caused by the "rush to install" in the wind power industry, and the price reduction pressure caused by the parity trend affects profitability.
