\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 126 National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) )
Core view
In 2021, the loss of net profit deducted from non parent company narrowed, and 4q21 revenue hit a quarterly high. The company’s annual revenue in 2021 was 2.467 billion yuan (yoy36%), and the net profit attributable to the parent was 146 million yuan (yoy68%), deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent of – 132 million and reducing the loss of 149 million yuan. Among them, the revenue of 4q21 was 700 million yuan (yoy39%, qoq8.55%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 45 million yuan (yoy-49%, qoq1081%), and the revenue reached a quarterly high. In terms of profitability, in 2021, the gross profit margin increased by 2.85 PCT to 15.96%, and the net profit margin increased by 0.93 PCT to 5.90%; 4q21 gross profit margin increased by 2.79pct to 19.03% month on month. Under the background of continuous strong market demand, the company’s production capacity continued to be released. From January to February, the company achieved a revenue of 511 million yuan (yoy51%), deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of -8.06 million yuan, reducing the loss by about 23.76 million yuan or 74% compared with the same period of the previous year.
Successfully build a 300mm integrated supply platform for semiconductor silicon wafers to achieve three “full coverage”. In 2021, the company successfully passed the technical certification of 300mm semiconductor silicon wafer products for 14nm logic products and realized mass supply; Successfully developed and verified 300mm semiconductor silicon wafer for 19nm DRAM, and made breakthrough progress; Successfully passed the certification of 300mm polishing wafer for 64 layer and 128 layer 3dnand applications, and realized mass supply. Technically, the company has realized the full coverage and large-scale sales of logic process and 3D storage process of 300mm semiconductor silicon wafer of 14nm and above, the full coverage of major chip manufacturers in China on customers, and the full coverage of logic, storage and image sensor chips on downstream applications, and successfully built a comprehensive supply platform of 12 inch semiconductor silicon wafer.
The gross profit margin of 300mm silicon wafer has been greatly improved, and the capacity utilization rate of 200mm and below products has remained high. In 2021, the company’s 300mm silicon wafer revenue was 688 million yuan (yoy118%), the proportion increased from 17% to 28%, and the gross profit margin increased from – 34.82% to – 6.17%; The revenue of 200mm and below products is 1.421 billion yuan (yoy16%), accounting for 58% from 68%, and the capacity utilization rate continues to remain high; The entrusted processing business income was 297 million yuan (yoy30%), accounting for 2.45%. By the end of 2021, the company has completed the production line construction of 300 thousand pieces / month of 300mm semiconductor silicon wafers, and has started the production expansion construction of 300 thousand pieces / month; The total capacity of polished wafer and epitaxial wafer of 200mm and below exceeds 400000 pieces / month, and the total capacity of SOI silicon wafer of 200mm and below exceeds 50000 pieces / month. In order to further optimize the product structure and meet the growing market demand of downstream customers, the company launched the production expansion plan of 200mm epitaxial wafer for automotive electronic applications.
Investment suggestion: continuously release production capacity and maintain the “overweight” rating
We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 209 / 290 / 388 million (the value before 20222023 will be RMB 191 / 239 million), with a year-on-year growth rate of 43 / 39 / 34%; EPS is 0.08/0.11/0.14 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the share price on April 12, 2022 is 287 / 207 / 155x respectively. The company’s downstream demand is strong, new production capacity is continuously released, and the “overweight” rating is maintained.
Risk tip: demand is less than expected, capacity release is less than expected, and customer import is less than expected.
