\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 92 Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) )
Event: the company released the performance forecast of Q1 in 2022. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 will be RMB 345 million-355 million, an increase of 334.98% – 347.59% over the same period of last year; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 343283 million yuan – 353283 million yuan, an increase of 337.34% – 350.08% over the same period of last year.
The low-cost advantage of lithium extraction from Salt Lake is highlighted, and the increase in volume and price boosts the volume of lithium business. (1) Volume: according to the announcement, the output of Q1 lithium carbonate in 2022 is about 7000 tons, and the sales volume is about 6700 tons. According to the production and sales calculation of 20 / 21, the existing inventory is about 4000 tons, and the company has 30000 tons of lithium carbonate capacity. With the accelerated release of Q2 Salt Lake capacity, it is expected that the performance of lithium business will be further improved. (2) Price: with the limited supply of lithium resources, the price rose sharply. In 2022, the average price of Q1 battery grade and industrial grade lithium carbonate was 421000 yuan / ton and 402000 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 463.2% and + 469.6%., Compared with + 102% and + 108.5% month on month, the price may fluctuate due to the reduction of production due to the epidemic and other reasons in the downstream recently, but the long-term tension of resources remains unchanged, and the lithium price is expected to remain high.
The price of potash fertilizer rises sharply, and the profit may continue to be realized. (1) Price: the price of potash fertilizer continues to rise. At present, the spot price has reached 4920 yuan / ton. As the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, the supply of potash fertilizer continues to be blocked. It is expected that the spot price of potash fertilizer will rise further in the coming months. Although there is a certain discount between the ex factory price and the spot price of the company, the overall trend is consistent. According to the public question and answer of investors, the selling price of Q1 has reached 3500 yuan / ton in 2022. (2) Production and sales: the production and sales of potassium chloride are stable. In 2022, the output of potassium chloride in Q1 is about 1.14 million tons, the sales volume is about 1.45 million tons, and the consumption inventory in a single quarter is about 310000 tons. At present, there are still about 476000 tons of inventory, and the annual sales volume may increase.
With light equipment, Chaerhan Salt Lake is rich in resources or can be realized quickly. The total area of Chaerhan Salt Lake is 5856 square kilometers, and the reserves of potassium chloride and lithium chloride rank first in China. The company has a production capacity of 5 million tons of potassium chloride and a planned production capacity of 100000 tons of lithium carbonate in salt lake. According to the action plan for building a world-class salt Lake industrial base in Qinghai, by 2035, the industrial output value of Salt Lake will reach 120 billion yuan, the world-class Salt Lake industrial base will be basically completed, and the company may continue to benefit from the Salt Lake development policy. In addition, the impact of ecological environment damage compensation and zombie enterprise liquidation has been included in the current profit and loss in 2021. In the future, the development of Chaerhan salt lake resources may be accelerated.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s operating revenue to be 14.462 billion yuan, 35.452 billion yuan and 37.437 billion yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, and its net profit to be 4.268 billion yuan, 14.344 billion yuan and 14.898 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.79, 2.64 and 2.74 yuan / share respectively. At present, the corresponding PE share price is 38.8, 11.5 and 11.1 times. For the first time, it is rated as “overweight-a”, and the six-month target price is 36 yuan / share.
Risk warning: the price of main products is lower than expected, the demand is lower than expected, and the project progress is lower than expected
