\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 558 Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) )
Key investment points
With the rapid growth of performance, the business of CNC machine tools is developing well:
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.14 billion yuan (year-on-year + 55%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 200 million yuan (year-on-year + 67%); Deduct 178 million yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent company (year-on-year + 69%). In terms of products, the revenue of CNC machine tool business is 830 million yuan (year-on-year + 75%), the revenue of intelligent automation production line business is 120 million yuan, which is the same as that of the previous year, and the revenue of equipment parts business is 170 million yuan (year-on-year + 37%).
The company's performance growth is mainly due to the good prosperity of the machine tool industry, and the increase of orders and production capacity drives the growth of machine tool sales. In 2021, the company sold 1850 machine tools (year-on-year + 78%), and the products were gradually upgraded to high-end products. In 2021, the revenue of high-end machine tools accounted for 53.4% of the revenue of machine tool business (year-on-year + 1.9pct).
Accounting changes lead to a slight decline in the comprehensive gross profit margin and good cost control during the period:
The gross profit margin in 2021 was 30.2% (year-on-year - 2.4pct), which was mainly due to the change of accounting standards. Transportation fees and handling fees were listed as main operating costs in 2021 (listed as sales expenses in 2020). In addition, the sharp rise in the price of raw materials such as steel had a certain impact on the gross profit margin of CNC machine tools and equipment parts business.
The net profit margin of sales in 2021 was 17.7% (year-on-year + 1.2pct), which was mainly due to the reduction of the period expense rate to 12.5% (year-on-year -2.4pct) under the scale effect. The sales / financial expense rate was -2.1 / - 0.4pct year-on-year respectively, and the management (including R & D) expense rate was the same as last year. In addition, in 2021, the R & D expense ratio was 5.1% (year-on-year + 0.2pct), and the R & D expense was 57.87 million yuan, a record high. In terms of R & D achievements, the company has developed new products such as three-sided milling gantry, double-sided boring, milling and horizontal machining for aerospace, new energy and other application fields; In terms of parts and components, the self-made rate of spindle of NC boring and milling machine was increased to 80%, and the self-made rate of fully automatic right angle head for five side machining was further improved.
Abundant orders on hand and good cash flow:
As of the end of the year, the company's liabilities were RMB 2029.4 billion (contract amount + 2020.1%); The inventory is 388 million yuan (year-on-year + 87%). At present, the company has sufficient orders on hand, the capacity improvement of each production base is accelerated, the output increase is accelerated, and the sales volume is also growing continuously. In 2021, the company's net cash flow from operating activities was 94 million yuan, basically the same as last year, mainly due to the increase of sales orders and the return of value-added tax.
Under the ten-year renewal cycle, the performance of high-quality machine tool enterprises is expected to accelerate the release
At the industry level, although the growth rate of the manufacturing industry has slowed down slightly, we expect the prosperity of the machine tool industry to continue under the background of the ten-year renewal cycle. From the perspective of the company: ① the product line is gradually enriched: the company is close to the downstream marine engine block, engineering machinery, aerospace, new energy vehicles and other fields to increase product research and development, and a number of new product research and development trials have been completed; Longmen series completed iterative optimization and went on sale in batches; Mass production of Bridge five axis machining center; ② Strengthen marketing: the company adopts the sales mode of distribution and direct sales, and constantly strengthens the market development assessment mechanism. In 2022, the company plans to add more than 10 dealers, cultivate direct sales customer groups in key areas, and accelerate the connection with new energy, wind power and other emerging tracks. We judge that with the gradual release of the company's production capacity, the performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly. At the same time, with high R & D investment, the company's products are expected to gradually penetrate the medium and high-grade CNC machine tool market occupied by foreign capital for a long time.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the growth of the company can be expected. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 280 / 360 / 460 million from 2022 to 2024. The current market value corresponds to 15 / 12 / 9 times of PE, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the industry boom is lower than expected, the gross profit margin is declining, and the core components are dependent on outsourcing.
