\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 311 Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) )
Taking into account the main business volume and profit, the cost of pigs decreased, the investment in shrimp breeding increased, and the “buy” rating was maintained
Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022: the company’s revenue in 2021 was 86 billion yuan (+ 42.6%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.6 billion yuan (- 36.7%). In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 19.95 billion yuan (+ 27.0%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 200 million yuan (- 71.62%). In 2021, the company’s non pig business realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.49 billion yuan (+ 32.97%). The pig business realized a net profit of – 900 million yuan (- 238.1%). The rising cost of feed raw materials in 2022q1 has put pressure on the company’s feed profit in the short term, and the rapid and large-scale marketing of pigs has also dragged down the short-term performance. The forecast for 20222023 has been lowered and the profit forecast for 2024 has been added. It is expected that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.50/55.7/6.56 billion respectively in 20222024 (the predicted value before 20222023 is RMB 3.6/6 billion), the corresponding EPS is RMB 1.51/3.35/3.95 respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 38.6/17.3/14.7 times, The company’s pig breeding cost has decreased rapidly and is expected to achieve performance gain in the upward period of 2023 cycle. Maintain the “buy” rating.
The feed business maintained high growth, and the company’s industrial chain integration advantage was prominent
In 2021, the company sold 18.77 million tons of feed (+ 28%). In terms of varieties, the company sold 944 / 460 / 4.67 million tons of poultry feed, pig feed and aquatic feed respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 11% / 100% / 21% respectively. The company’s feed gross profit in 2021 was 9.08% (- 1.24pct). In 2021, the company’s downstream breeding service capacity continued to improve, and the revenue of seedlings and animal protection reached 860 / 890 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 42.3% / + 34.3% respectively. The company continues to promote the “thousand store plan” of the core breeding regional service station, expand the company’s leading edge in the industry by integrating the advantages of the company’s industrial chain, and lay a solid foundation for achieving the sales target of 40 million tons of feed (including domestic sales) by 2025. In 2022q1, the company exported 4.19 million tons of feed (+ 22%), and the company’s feed sales maintained a steady growth momentum.
The cost of pig breeding has dropped rapidly, and the company plans to increase shrimp breeding to realize the “chain expansion” of breeding
The company will sell about 2 million pigs in 2021. 2022q1 company sold 830000 pigs, and the breeding cost was 16 yuan / kg, which decreased significantly. It is estimated that the company’s pig breeding cost will be reduced to 15.0-15.5 yuan / kg in 2022, and the full cost will be reduced to less than 17 yuan / kg. The negative impact of pig breeding business on the company’s overall profit realization is weakening, and with the cycle reversal, it will bring positive performance contribution. The company will increase investment in shrimp farming business in 2022, and industrialized shrimp farming will become a new growth point of the company’s farming business.
Risk tips: the cost of feed raw materials is rising, the loss cycle length of pig breeding industry, etc
