\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 531 Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) )
Matters:
The company released its 2021 annual report, realizing an operating revenue of 8.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.42%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.310 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.76%, and a net profit of 1.075 billion yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of 9.91%. In 2021q4, the revenue was 2.952 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.45%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 278 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%. It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 0.8 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Ping An View:
Wind power operation and investment income promote the steady growth of the company’s performance. In 2021, the company’s performance increased steadily, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.310 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.76%, and a net profit of RMB 1.075 billion after deduction, a year-on-year increase of 9.91%. The main driving forces of performance growth include three aspects: first, the business volume of wind power operation has increased, and the performance contribution has increased significantly. The main subsidiary Shanghai Tianshun Zero Carbon Industrial Development Co., Ltd. has a net profit of 551 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 248 million yuan year-on-year; Second, the investment income increased by 185 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the substantial increase in investment income generated by the reduction of Shenzhen Cotran New Material Co.Ltd(300731) company’s shares; Third, the credit / asset impairment loss decreased by about 135 million yuan year-on-year. Affected by the decline of new installed capacity of onshore wind power, the profit contribution of the company’s wind power tower and blade manufacturing sectors decreased year-on-year in 2021.
The profitability per ton of tower has bottomed out, and the shipment volume is expected to continue to grow. In 2021, the company’s tower sales volume was 626000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.13%, and the revenue per ton was 8263 yuan, slightly lower than the same period; The gross profit per ton is about 1000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 480 yuan, which is at a historical low. It is estimated that the intensification of competition caused by the decline of industrial demand and the sharp rise of steel prices in 2021 will have a significant impact on the profitability of the tower, and the single ton profit of the tower is expected to stabilize and recover in the future. The new installed capacity of onshore wind power in China is expected to grow rapidly, and the company’s capacity continues to expand, reaching 900000 tons so far. In the future, the onshore capacity will be expanded in Qian’an, Jingmen, Beihai and other places, and the onshore tower shipment is expected to grow steadily. In addition, the company has steadily promoted the construction of offshore engineering bases in Germany and Sheyang, and actively planned to build offshore wind power pipe pile / tower capacity in other regions. The offshore business has great development potential.
Blade business declined in the short term, and capacity expansion continued. In 2021, the company sold 2675 blades, a year-on-year decrease of 16.43%, 61 sets of molds, a year-on-year increase of 48.78%. The overall revenue of blade related business was 1.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.58%, and the gross profit margin was 16.98%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.31 percentage points. On the whole, the blade business was affected by the decline of onshore wind power demand to a certain extent. In 2021, Henan Puyang blade base was officially put into operation. The company completed the site selection of the base in Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, central China and other places and planned to build new blade capacity. With the rapid growth of new installed capacity demand of wind power in China, the company’s blade business has room for growth.
Zero carbon business is expected to enter a new round of rapid development. In 2021, the company’s wind farm operation revenue was 1.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47.94% and a gross profit margin of 70%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.47 percentage points, realizing both volume and profit. By the end of 2021, the company’s cumulative scale of grid connected wind farms was 884mw, with a year-on-year increase of about 25MW; In October 2021, the company obtained the development right of Wulanchabu 500MW wind power project, which is expected to complete the full capacity grid connection by the end of 2022; It is expected that in the future, the company will strengthen the acquisition of wind resources, the operation scale or transfer scale of wind farms will grow rapidly, and promote the rapid increase of performance contribution. On the whole, the company implements zero carbon + manufacturing two wheel drive and the coordinated development of zero carbon business and manufacturing business. On the one hand, the superior economy of wind farm helps the company cope with the fierce competition of manufacturing business and improve the market share. On the other hand, the capacity expansion of manufacturing business provides a competitive advantage for the company to obtain wind farm resources.
Investment advice. Considering that the profitability of the tower business is lower than expected, the profit forecast of the company is adjusted. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.287 billion yuan (the original forecast value is 1.718 billion yuan), 1.593 billion yuan (the original forecast value is 2.135 billion yuan), 2.053 billion yuan (New), and dynamic pe1.7 billion yuan 2. 13.9, 10.8 times. The company’s main business is ready to go, and can continue to grow in the future, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning. (1) The profitability of the company’s tower and other businesses is greatly affected by the price of raw materials such as steel. If the price of raw materials rises unilaterally, it may have an adverse impact; (2) The export proportion of the company’s tower business is large, and overseas trade policies and exchange rate fluctuations may have an adverse impact on the company’s overseas business; (3) Tower business is facing fierce industry competition, which may lead to lower profitability than expected.
