\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
In 2021, the company’s performance increased significantly and its gross profit margin reached a record high: in 2021, the company’s revenue was 7.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.718 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 143.6%, the gross profit margin was 49.86%, a year-on-year increase of 7.23 PCT, and the gross profit margin hit a record high; The net interest rate was 36.17%, with a year-on-year increase of 8.72pct. In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 962 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 103.8%, a month on month increase of 36.5%, a gross profit margin of 53.07%, a year-on-year increase of 7.43 PCT and a month on month increase of 3.10 PCT.
From the perspective of the sales volume of 3pc paper and diaphragm companies, the sales volume of lithium film and diaphragm companies accounted for about 9.4 billion yuan in 2021, accounting for about 3.1% of the global market, with a significant decrease in the sales volume of 3pc paper and diaphragm companies, accounting for about 3.1% in 2021. In 2021, the company shipped more than 3 billion square meters of lithium diaphragm, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 100%. Diaphragm production capacity and shipment volume ranked first in the world. In 2021, the company accounted for about 30% in the global market and about 58% in China’s wet diaphragm market, and its market share increased. We calculate that the annual average selling price of diaphragm is about 2.10 yuan / m2, and the net profit per square meter is about 0.85 yuan / m2.
Continued to increase R & D investment, and the company’s expense rate was well controlled: the company’s sales expense rate in 2021 was 0.93%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.39pct; The rate of administrative expenses was 2.71%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.93pct; The financial expense ratio was 1.92%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.49pct. The R & D expense ratio was 5.13%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.97pct.
The performance of 2022q1 is in line with expectations, and the annual shipment volume is expected to increase significantly: the company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 is 865950 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100.2% – 119.9% and a month on month decrease of 1.2% – 10.1%. Net profit deducted from non parent company was 835920 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 106.2% – 127.1% and a month on month decrease of 1.9% – 11.0%. The performance is in line with expectations. The company’s Q1 shipment in 2022 was about 1.1 billion square meters, and the annual shipment in 2022 is expected to be about 5.4 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of about 80%. In terms of price, as supply and demand are still tight in 2022, the price is supported. In addition, with the increase in the proportion of coated film and the increase in shipments from overseas customers, we expect the gross profit margin of the diaphragm to remain above 55%.
The diaphragm will be greatly expanded in the future and will be constructed in many places in China and abroad: in 2021, the company’s lithium battery diaphragm capacity will reach 5 billion square meters, mainly wet diaphragm. In China, the company has production bases in Shanghai, Wuxi, Jiangxi, Zhuhai, Suzhou and other places, and continues to expand production, including Chongqing Enjie 16 high-performance microporous diaphragm project, Jiangsu Enjie power vehicle 16 diaphragm project, Suzhou Jieli lithium battery coating project with an annual output of 200 million square meters, etc. In addition, the company cooperates with the leading lithium battery company Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to jointly build wet and dry diaphragm projects. And Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) . The company is expected to build its first overseas production line in North America and further expand its overseas production base in the future. It is estimated that 25-30 production lines will be added every year from 2022 to 2024. It is estimated that the company’s wet diaphragm capacity will reach 10 billion square meters and dry diaphragm capacity will reach 1 billion square meters in 2023. The target share of the company’s global market in 2025 is 50%. In addition, the company’s aluminum-plastic film project for soft pack batteries will become a new increment in addition to the diaphragm in the future.
The company’s production technology has been continuously optimized and the product R & D has a forward-looking layout: in terms of production technology, the company officially applied the online coating technology pioneered in the world in 2021. It is the only diaphragm enterprise in the industry to master this technology and apply it to large-scale production. This process can reduce the processes of winding and slitting before coating, on the one hand, improve the production efficiency and reduce the production cost; On the other hand, it can improve the product thickness uniformity and other quality. This technology will be widely used in new production lines in the future. In addition, the company has a strong ability of equipment transformation and upgrading, and the localization of equipment in the future can further reduce costs. In terms of product technology, the company has laid out semi-solid lithium diaphragm, alternative coating materials for coated PVDF, etc., with a forward-looking technical layout.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.655 billion yuan, 6.508 billion yuan and 9.401 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 71.3%, 39.8% and 44.5%. The PE value of the current stock price from 2022 to 2024 is 39, 28 and 19 times respectively, maintaining the investment rating of “buy-b”.
Risk warning: the global demand for new energy vehicles is less than expected; Product expansion is less than expected; Product price decline; Industry competition and other factors.
