\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 572 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: the company released its annual report for 21 years, and achieved a revenue of 10.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 123 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 89.7% (after adding back the impairment, the company's net profit attributable to the parent was about 1.03 billion yuan, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent was - 13.5%); Among them, the single Q4 revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company were 3.16 billion yuan / - 730 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 2.9% / - 246.7% respectively.
The rise of raw materials and the climbing of scale effect have put pressure on profitability. In the 21st year, the gross profit margin of the company was 33.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.4pp, of which the gross profit margins of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 were 31.2% / 37.2% / 35.8% / 28.8% respectively. By channel, the gross profit margin of distribution / direct sales / bulk / other channels is 34.1% (- 4.1pp) / 69.5% (- 5.3pp) / 20.5% (- 2.9pp) / 19.8% (- 0.3pp) respectively. The decline of gross profit margin in 21 years was mainly affected by two aspects: 1) the price of raw materials increased significantly in the second half of 21 years, while the price of products has not been adjusted synchronously, and the support to dealers has been strengthened; 2) Factors such as the substantial increase of product SKU, direct marketing and assembly and Milana operation have led to the temporary reduction of production efficiency. In terms of cost control, the total cost rate of the company in 21 years was 22.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1pp, of which the sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate / R & D expense rate were 9.7% (+ 0.5pp) / 9.8% (+ 0PP) / 0.7% (+ 0.2pp) / 2.8% (+ 0.3pp) respectively. Affected by the decline of the company's gross profit margin and the rise of the expense rate, the company's net profit margin was 1.5%, down 13.2pp year-on-year, and the net profit margin after adding back the impairment was 9.9%, down 4.4pp year-on-year.
Important categories of wardrobe grew steadily, and milanna and Simi are expected to accelerate their contribution increment. In terms of products, the wardrobe / cabinet / wooden door business contributed 8.27 billion yuan (+ 23.4%) / 1.42 billion yuan (+ 17.3%) / 460 million yuan (+ 56.7%), accounting for 79.5% / 13.6% / 4.4% of the revenue respectively. The fist category grew steadily, and the wooden door grew brightly after the cultivation period. The total number of stores of the company has reached more than 4000, of which the number of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) cabinet customization / Simi / Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) wooden door / Huahe stores has reached 2730 / 1122 / 1338 / 265 respectively, with a net opening of 11 / 14 / 368 / 22 respectively in 21 years, and the number of wooden door stores has increased the fastest. Milanna has 212 stores, with accelerated channel expansion. It is expected to gradually increase its contribution to the company's performance in the future. In terms of customer unit price, by the end of December 21, the company's Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) factory had achieved a customer unit price of 14491 yuan / order (excluding Simi cabinet and wooden door), with a year-on-year increase of 9.63%, and the customer order maintained a stable growth.
The bulk business optimized the customer structure, and the packaging performance exploded. The company continued to optimize the customer structure of bulk business and focused on developing engineering customers with guaranteed payment ability. In 21 years, the company achieved a revenue of 1.6 billion yuan (including wardrobe, cabinet, wooden door and others), with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% (accounting for 15.4%), and the performance has strong toughness. In terms of packaging channels, the company has achieved a revenue of 530 million yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 3 times (accounting for 5.1%), and has stepped into a high-speed development track. It is expected to continue to create high growth for the company's performance in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.58 yuan, 1.91 yuan and 2.21 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 13 times, 11 times and 9 times respectively. Considering the company's efforts in the whole customization and packaging channels, it is expected to usher in an operational inflection point and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of changes in the real estate market, the risk of sharp fluctuations in the price of raw materials, and the risk of intensified market competition.
