\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Events
On the evening of April 11, 2022, the company released the financial data of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022: the total revenue in 2021 was 19.971 billion yuan (+ 42.75%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.314 billion yuan (+ 72.56%). In 2022q1, the total operating revenue was about 10.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 43% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 3.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 70% at the same time.
Key investment points
2021 ended smoothly and 2022q1 made a good start as scheduled
In 2021, the company’s revenue was 19.971 billion yuan (+ 42.75%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.314 billion yuan (+ 72.56%), and the net interest rate was 26.6% (with an increase of 4.33 PCT), which was caused by the scale effect under the continuous optimization of product structure; In 2021q4, the revenue was 2.714 billion yuan (- 25%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 435 million yuan (- 29.6%). It is suggested to combine 2021q4 and 2022q1 to study more objectively.
In 2022q1, the total operating revenue was about 10.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 43% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 3.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 70% at the same time, and the net interest rate is 35.2% (an increase of 5.4pct at the same time). The first quarter started well as scheduled. There are mainly the following reasons: 1) the company actively carries out work around “Four Focuses” and “four insistences”. 2) In the first quarter, the company flexibly adjusted its marketing policies and took multiple measures at the same time. Medium and high-end products such as Qinghua Fenjiu series achieved substantial growth and successfully achieved a “good start”. We believe that the revenue growth of Qinghua 30 and above products exceeded 40%, and continue to optimize the product structure.
Blue and white 30 and above will continue to be sold in large quantities, focusing on East and South China outside the province
In 2022, the company will continue to focus on the blue and white series, hold high and fight high, and Bofen will continue to control the quantity; Focus on three indicators: the first is the sales index of Qinghua Fen Liquor, the second is the terminal index of Qinghua 20, and the third is the index of Qinghua Fen Liquor opinion leader group.
In terms of expansion outside the province, build three markets and focus on the markets in East China and South China. The three major markets refer to the first is the large base Market (in addition to the original base camp, it is emphasized that a strong base market will be built in the north of the Yellow River, with the North China market as the core barrier), the second is the East China market, and the third is the South China market. Again emphasize the importance of East China market (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Anhui and other markets) and South China market (mainly including Guangdong, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and two lakes regions), and ask for market share from these two markets.
Five highlights of the company in the future: in-depth nationalization
Looking forward to 2022, although the company’s performance slowed down year-on-year in 2021, the revenue is still expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 25%. After the national reform in 2017, the company is rejuvenated in the second spring, and the brand revival is imminent. It is just around the corner to become maowufen.
We think the company’s five highlights in the future:
1) build a 2 + 2 brand, in which the first 2 refers to Fenjiu and Zhuyeqing, and the second 2 refers to Xinghua village brand and series brand. The core of Fenjiu and Zhuyeqing drives the development of the company, and Xinghua village brand and series brand are beneficial supplements.
2) a big health industry platform with Zhuyeqing as the core. Zhuyeqing is a core brand to be built by the company in the future and is expected to be large-scale in the future.
3) under the product strategy of “grasping both ends and strengthening the waist”, the blue and white series continues to enhance the brand strength of the company. The blue and white 30 · revival version seeks to bring large quantities of single products at a price of 1000 yuan, and Bofen consolidates the large single products at a price of 40-60 yuan, so as to strengthen the competitiveness of products from laobaifen and Panama.
4) implement the “1357” nationwide layout for regional expansion, and gradually build the marketing organization structure of 31 provinces and regions + 10 directly under the management area. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the proportion of revenue inside and outside the province is expected to increase from the current 4:6 to 3:7 in the future.
5) with the gradual completion of the company’s layout, the optimization of product structure and the deepening of national layout, the company’s net interest rate under the scale effect is expected to increase from more than 20% at present to more than 30% in the future.
Profit forecast
At present, the company’s brand potential continues to be released, focusing on building blue and white 30 revival version and entering the high-end wine camp. According to the financial data of 2021, we slightly adjusted the EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 4.36/5.78/7.49 yuan (the previous values were 4.51/5.95/7.71 yuan respectively), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price was 53 / 40 / 31 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, the epidemic dragged down consumption, the growth of Qinghua was less than expected, and the expansion outside the province was less than expected.
