In 2021, with the announcement of the results of the Seventh National Census (Qipu for short), China’s urban population development pattern ushered in a reshuffle. By 2020, there are 18 cities with a population of 10 million, including Chongqing, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Harbin, Suzhou, Linyi, Dongguan, Shijiazhuang, Xi\’an, Changsha and Qingdao. Among them, Changsha, Qingdao and Dongguan are “new” cities with a population of tens of millions, and the resident population has increased by 3 million, 1.36 million and 2.25 million respectively compared with 2010.
However, some cities that have hovered at the threshold of tens of millions of people deserve more attention. As a key area of population inflow in China, there are five cities in the Yangtze River Delta – Wenzhou, Ningbo, Hefei, Nanjing and Xuzhou, with a permanent population of more than 9 million in 2020, which is qualified to sprint to cities with a population of 10 million. In addition, Foshan in the Pearl River Delta, with a permanent population of 9.5 million, is also a key “reserve team” for cities with tens of millions of people.
2021 has come to an end, and the latest population data will be released soon. Can cities with tens of millions of people be expanded? Which cities in the Yangtze River Delta are most likely to take the lead in promotion?
population ups and downs in five cities in the Yangtze River Delta
Comparing the data of the sixth census and the seventh census, with the transformation of economic driving mode and local leading industries in the past two decades, although the resident population of the five cities in the Yangtze River Delta – Wenzhou, Ningbo, Hefei, Nanjing and Xuzhou has reached the level of 9 million, the population growth trend is not the same.
The population growth and annual average growth rate of Wenzhou from 2010 to 2020 (hereinafter referred to as the “seven ten years”) decreased significantly compared with that from 2000 to 2010 (hereinafter referred to as the “six ten years”). The data show that Wenzhou has increased by 1.56 million people, an increase of 20.69% and an average annual increase of 1.90% in the six ten years, while it has only increased by 450000 people, an increase of 4.94% and an average annual increase of 0.48% in the seven ten years. From 2000 to 2010, Wenzhou attracted a large number of migrant workers. In this decade, the inflow population outside Wenzhou reached 2.8422 million, accounting for 31.16% of the permanent resident population of Wenzhou, but the attraction of Wenzhou to the population outside Wenzhou has declined in the last decade.
Nanjing’s population growth is also under pressure. During the past decade, the permanent resident population of Nanjing increased by 1.31 million, with an average annual growth rate of 1.53%, which was nearly one percentage point lower than that in the previous decade. From 2000 to 2010, the permanent resident population in Nanjing increased by 1.77 million, with an average annual growth rate of 2.52%.
Considering the increase of urban population base and the slowdown of urbanization, the average annual population growth rate of cities in the data of the seventh census and census is generally lower than that of the sixth census and census, but the population growth trend of Nanjing is still not optimistic compared with other cities in the province: the permanent resident population of Suzhou has increased by 2.29 million during the decade of the seventh census and census, and the annual average growth rate is 2.00%, both of which are significantly ahead of Nanjing, Suzhou is also the only city with a population of 10 million in Jiangsu. In addition, the resident population of Wuxi has increased by 1.09 million in the past seven to ten years, which is lower than 1.31 million in Nanjing, but the average annual population growth rate of Wuxi (1.59%) exceeds that of Nanjing.
In terms of the proportion of population in the whole province, Suzhou has increased from 13.30% in 2010 to 15.04% in 2020, an increase of 1.7 percentage points in the past decade, 0.8 percentage points in Nanjing and 0.7 percentage points in Wuxi. In the face of the pattern of competition among the heroes in the province, it is difficult for Nanjing to gather population resources.
Hefei and Ningbo have a good population growth trend.
The resident population of Ningbo has increased by 1.64 million in the past six to ten years, with an average annual growth rate of 2.46%; During the past seven to ten years, the population still increased by 1.8 million, with an average annual growth rate of 2.15%. It can be said that this is not easy to get. Especially under the background of Hangzhou’s rapid economic development and attracting more than 3 million people in the past decade (2010-2020), Ningbo has continued to maintain its status as a big city for population input.
In contrast, Hefei’s population attraction is more prominent in the seven ten years than in the six ten years. Hefei’s resident population has increased by 1.24 million in the past six decades, with an average annual growth rate of 2.47%, while it has increased by 1.91 million in the past seven decades, with an average annual growth rate of 2.31%. Hefei is also the city with the highest annual average growth rate of resident population among the five cities in the Yangtze River Delta during the period of seven universal suffrage, followed by Ningbo, which is far away from the other three cities.
Xuzhou is the most special of the five cities. In the past ten years, the permanent resident population of Xuzhou has decreased by 500000, but in the past ten years, it has increased by 510000, realizing “turning losses into profits” in the field of population. However, in terms of the proportion of the population in the whole province, the proportion of Xuzhou is still declining in the past seven to ten years. The main reason behind this is that Xuzhou’s population attraction is difficult to compete with strong cities in the province. Moreover, the resident population in Xuzhou in 2020 has not yet exceeded the number of registered residence, that is to say, the city is still in a state of population loss. Although Xuzhou has achieved a certain transcendence during the seven universal suffrage period, it will still be under great pressure if it participates in the “population war” among strong cities in the Yangtze River Delta.
if the above population growth trend is continued, Hefei, Ningbo and Nanjing will be the three cities that are more likely to take the lead in breaking the 10 million population mark.
strengthening industrial support is the key
The population growth trend reflects the change of urban competitiveness, and the urban industrial development route will further affect the change of urban population scale and structure.
among the above five cities, Ningbo and Hefei have outstanding manufacturing development. “the manufacturing industry is the foundation for Ningbo to establish and strengthen the city.” Zhang Shifang, Secretary of the Party group and director of Ningbo Municipal Bureau of economy and information technology, once said that successive Party committees and governments of Ningbo attach great importance to industrial development, always put the development of industry in the primary position of economic construction, and continue to implement the strategy of “building a city with industry” and “strengthening a city with industry”.
In recent ten years, Hefei has implemented many large-scale projects, arranged high-end manufacturing industries such as chips, large screens and new energy vehicles, and led the development of supporting industrial clusters with leading enterprises.
The manufacturing industry and the resulting service industry are mostly labor-intensive industries with many jobs and large population demand. Ningbo has attracted a large number of migrant workers from Sichuan, Guizhou and other places. Hefei gives full play to the advantages of the provincial capital to attract the surrounding population. In recent years, many Anhui people who originally worked abroad have chosen to return to Hefei for development. This is also directly reflected in the sharp jump in the proportion of Hefei’s population in the province, from 12.53% in 2010 to 15.35% in 2020.
For comparison, Foshan, as a major manufacturing city and located in the Pearl River Delta, will have a population of 9.5 million in 2020, an increase of 2.3 million over 2010. Therefore, in the race to speed up cities with a population of tens of millions, Foshan will also become a strong competitor in Ningbo, Hefei and other cities in the Yangtze River Delta.
It is worth mentioning that Foshan, Ningbo and other cities with manufacturing characteristics also pay more attention to the cultivation of skilled talents. Both cities have a large number of policies and activities to promote the training of skilled talents, which will also stimulate the sustainable development of skilled talents in the local area.
In addition, the two places have also actively solved the problems of migrant workers’ children moving with them.
For example, in 2020, the proportion of population aged 0-14 in Ningbo was 12.26%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points over 2010. Qipu reversed the continuous downward trend of the proportion of population aged 0-14 in previous censuses. According to official analysis, this is due to the introduction of the two-child policy and the relaxation of school conditions for migrant workers’ accompanying children.
In addition, the Pearl River Delta is promoting the accumulation of years of employment in the same city, which is also conducive to population agglomeration in key cities.
From the perspective of Nanjing, although the population growth of Nanjing in the past seven to ten years is not as rapid as that of Hefei and Ningbo, Nanjing has created more GDP with less population In 2020, Nanjing’s per capita GDP will reach 159100 yuan, far exceeding that of Ningbo and Hefei. Nanjing has many large state-owned enterprises, which has a good support for economic scale.
At the same time, Nanjing, which is good at science, education and scientific research, is actively promoting industrial transformation and focusing on knowledge and technology intensive industries. Recently, Han liming, mayor of Nanjing, said that the overall goal of Nanjing in the next five years is to build an innovative city with global influence and accelerate the formation of a growth mode with innovation as the first driving force.
Nanjing also proposed that the permanent resident population should exceed 10 million in the next five years. This also gives Nanjing sufficient time to sprint into a city with a population of tens of millions.
for Wenzhou and Xuzhou, in the fierce urban competition, it is very important to identify self positioning and characteristic industries, which will also determine whether the future population of the two cities will be siphoned by other big cities or maintain their own population attraction. Wenzhou is experiencing a critical period of industrial transformation, accelerating the implementation of large-scale projects and making great efforts in scientific and technological innovation, such as promoting the production of China Greatwall Technology Group Co.Ltd(000066) independent innovation base, Budweiser beer and other projects, promoting the signing and implementation of Kosi Technology Research Institute and international future science and technology Island, and also planning and building landmark projects such as Beidou industrial base, China eye Valley and Gene Medicine Valley, However, the cluster effect of emerging industries in Wenzhou is not prominent.
Xuzhou has the smallest economic scale among the five cities. At present, it mainly focuses on four strategic emerging industries: equipment and intelligent manufacturing, new energy, integrated circuit and ICT, biomedicine and great health, and actively promotes the construction of the central city of Huaihai economic zone. Form a joint force and coordinated development with surrounding cities, or a new breakthrough for Xuzhou.
(source: 21st Century Business Herald)
