Last trading day, the stock market can be said to be full of grass and trees. In the morning, the three major indexes remained in the doldrums after opening low, and there was almost no resistance in many parties throughout the day. As of the close, SSE 50 closed down 2.70%, CSI 300 closed down 3.09%, and CSI 500 closed down 3.12%. We think there were several short factors on the disk yesterday: 1 The weekend news did not appear to be good for direct landing. On the contrary, overseas risks are likely to make a comeback. On the one hand, Ukraine officially established the goal of joining NATO, and the friction between Russia and Ukraine escalated again, which does not rule out the possibility of further military conflict. On the other hand, the market’s expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike has been increasing, and the deterioration of Russia Ukraine relations will further delay the peak of inflation. Under the background of tightening liquidity, the global stock market has been hit hard again. 2. the interest rate difference between China and the United States has been upside down. Yesterday, the dollar index once broke 100, the risk of RMB depreciation has increased, and the pressure of capital outflow has increased. 3. In the early stage, the market protection stocks fell across the board. Previously, we have always stressed that the market sentiment is unstable, and steady growth is the biggest dependence of the current multi-party upward trend. With the disappearance of this backbone, yesterday’s disk was naturally slaughtered by others. 4. The CPI data released yesterday showed that China’s CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in March this year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month. We believe that under the hedging effect of “lard”, China’s early inflation level is generally controllable, but the data in March do not fully reflect the impact of the recent epidemic, and the pig price may turn around in the second quarter. Therefore, we still need to beware of the risk of “stagflation” in the future. In addition, after excluding the impact of energy and food, the core CPI showed a downward trend month on month in March, suggesting that China’s current demand is weak and the macro-economy is under pressure. 5. Technically, we say that there is great pressure on the index near the 30 day moving average. In the early stage, SSE 50 and CSI 300 have reached the key pressure level, so the callback also has its own technical demand.
At present, there are more and more bad news on the disk recently, and A-Shares are in a tense situation of domestic and foreign aggression. After yesterday’s closing, the policy side came forward again to protect market confidence. On the one hand, the central bank released the social finance data in March in advance. Although the structural performance needs to be improved, the total amount has increased compared with the previous month. On the other hand, yesterday, the management again called for long-term funds to enter the market and encouraged pension, insurance trust and other additional A shares. The impact of China’s news is obviously too much. Generally speaking, the current situation of the market is that the international situation is unpredictable, and Chinese policies are constantly issued to hedge risks. Therefore, the only way for many parties to rely on is the main line of “steady growth”. Last night, European and American stock markets closed down again. Before the periphery stabilized, we believe that China is more likely to continue to maintain a volatile market. In the short term, there is little possibility of new hot spots in the market. Relying on the news to boost the upward trend, the situation will be maintained for a long time. Coupled with the registration system reform previously implemented, the signal of the market turning to value becomes more and more obvious. It is expected that the investment opportunities of the index will be better than individual stocks in 2022. In the short term, investors are advised to focus on IH, which is closely related to steady growth, and wait for the anti overshoot opportunity of if after the risk fades in the medium term.
Operational suggestions: in the short term, the long short game has not ended, and there is great pressure near the 30 day moving average of the index. It is suggested that investors pay attention to IH with high relationship of “stable growth”, and can enter if every decline in the medium term.
