Research conclusion
In China, "steady economic growth" has become the top priority of the policy. At present, the epidemic situation is still in a high sporadic state. The number of confirmed cases in China has remained at a high level of 1000 on the fifth day, and the number of asymptomatic infections has increased by 18000 on the fifth day. In order to control the epidemic situation, many places across the country have taken risk control measures. Affected by this, China's official manufacturing PMI slowed to 49.5 in March from 50.2 in February, below the critical point, reflecting a decline in the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry. By item, the new order index was 48.80 (50.70 last month) and the export order index was 47.20 (49.00 last month). The frequent covid-19 epidemic in China and the rise in international commodity prices caused by the superposition of military conflicts between Russia and Ukraine are the main reasons for the slowdown of PMI index.
In terms of policy response, Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council on April 6. The meeting stressed the need to speed up the implementation of the spirit of the central economic work conference and the measures of the government work report, put steady growth in a more prominent position and effectively stabilize the overall macroeconomic situation; We should strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity.
Therefore, under the internal and external pressure on the economy in the first quarter, in order to achieve the annual economic growth target, the pressure of stable growth in the future is greater, which means that more and more powerful policies and measures are needed to achieve the target. We expect that in the future, there may be further policies to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates, and further policies and measures to stabilize growth, including increasing investment in infrastructure and further deregulation of the real estate industry.
Overseas, the rhythm of table contraction and the range of interest rate increase exceeded expectations, affecting the performance of overseas capital markets. The minutes of the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve in March released on April 6 this week deserve attention: participants supported the implementation of one or more 0.5% interest rate hikes and the launch of the $95 billion quantitative tightening (QT) plan as early as may. It can be seen that the determination and strength of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and reduce bonds are very great. However, after the FOMC announcement, US stocks did not fall sharply. We believe that this expectation may have been digested by the market in the short term. On the one hand, Powell's speech in the early stage has hinted that, on the other hand, the G7 countries' increased sanctions against Russia will continue to push up inflationary pressure. The minutes of the meeting released this time are in line with market expectations, and US stocks still rebounded in April. However, with the start of the FOMC meeting and the implementation of the plan in early May, the market pressure will gradually appear.
Therefore, considering the domestic and international situation and looking forward to a shares, we believe that the deterministic direction of the short-term A-share market is still in the direction of "stable growth" in China, and in the medium term, the A-share market will still be affected by the Fed's interest rate hike, global high inflation and the pressure on China's macroeconomic fundamentals, showing a trend of repeated shocks.
From the perspective of configuration, we maintain the view in the strategic outlook in April, and believe that it is difficult to have a style or a track throughout the year in 2022. The high and low rotation of different industries and investment themes will be the main theme of the year. This year, we should pay more attention to the investment opportunities in the sector with reversal of fundamental difficulties and improvement of policy expectations; At the same time, in the macro environment of "quasi stagflation" in China in the second quarter, we should pay attention to the sectors with high valuation and performance cost performance. Specifically:
(I) "steady growth" and "wide credit" are still the key support directions of the policy, while infrastructure and real estate are the two main focuses of steady growth and wide credit, and the latter will play an increasingly important role. There are still allocation opportunities in the second quarter of this year, focusing on the large financial and real estate infrastructure industry chain with low Pb (real estate, building materials and construction machinery). (II) focus on the sectors benefiting from the impact of economic stagflation and geopolitical crisis, focusing on agriculture, gold, chemical fertilizers and pesticides. (III) track stocks may usher in a certain investment window period. Starting from April, A-Shares will enter an intensive quarterly disclosure period; Since the substantial adjustment of the market in March, many companies have also disclosed their operating data from January to February in advance; As the disclosure period of the first quarterly report approaches, track stocks may usher in a certain investment window period. Focus on semiconductor, medicine, automobile intelligence and other tracks that benefit from the boom of downstream demand and large long-term space. (IV) for the consumption sector, the opportunity is better in the second half of 2022. On the one hand, in the first half of the year, China's economic pressure is still large, and the epidemic and imported inflation will significantly suppress the middle and lower reaches; On the other hand, from the month on month prediction, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is more likely to rise in the second half of this year, which also indicates that the recovery of the overall economic heat needs to wait for the second half of this year.
Risk tips
1. The macroeconomic downturn exceeded expectations; 2、 The global covid-19 epidemic broke out again than expected; 3、 The promotion of the "steady growth" policy was less than expected
