Key points of the report
Short term anxiety: half a glass of water full (valuation) VS half cup of water and air (Fundamentals), it is possible to extend the duration of the bubble market at the bottom of the previous bubble, which companies become TenBagger in the next 2 or 10 years.
I. The principle of ten times stock selection two years after the bear market. ① New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) industrial chain: different from the main melody of the previous bull market, the high prosperity of new industries is enough to drive the transformation of economic growth. 2. The supply side has obvious advantages: concentrated in upstream consumer goods (nonferrous metals, chemicals, building materials) special consumer goods (Baijiu, medicine). ③ Large market value is more dominant, contrary to the conclusion of "small aestheticism" in most studies. ④ Non linear breakthrough in profit growth: aerial refueling. ⑤ Try to avoid overvaluation. It doesn't matter how much the bear market falls.
II. The principle of ten times stock selection 10 years after the bear market. ① Consumption has crossed the cycle into a tenfold stock concentration camp, but medicine is being challenged. ② From the perspective of long-term cycle, technology tenfold stocks have emerged, mainly hardware. ③ Cyclical resource products put more emphasis on supply side constraints. ④ The dilemma reversed and the inflection point of the company's long-term performance appeared. Small market value companies are more dominant. ⑤ Initial valuation is not important. It doesn't matter how much the bear market falls.
Text summary
Look in the rearview mirror to see which primary school the high score students come from. (1) this report TenBagger takes the four bear market bottom of A shares: 200506, 200810, 201601 and 201901 as typical bubble clearing symbols, screening companies that have gained more than 10 times in 2 years or 10 years, and observe their performance, industry, market value, valuation and bear market decline. In order to make each interval comparable, we divide the characteristics of the whole a sample (listed before the starting point) into five equal intervals to see which primary school the high score students come from, that is, count the distribution of 10x shares falling into different quantile intervals, reflecting the common characteristics. ② After the bear market, there are 42 stocks after 2005, 14 stocks after 2008, 37 stocks after 16 years (triple stocks) and 14 stocks after 19 years (to 21 / 09 / 14). ③ Ten times the number of stocks 10 years after the bear market, a total of three rounds of observation interval: 29 after 2005 (50 times the number of stocks), 43 after 2008 and 19 after 16 years (to 21 / 09 / 14).
2-year tenfold shares: New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) industrial chain, supply side advantage, large market value, profit refueling in the air, avoiding overvalued value. ① New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) industrial chain: the high prosperity of the industry is enough to drive the transformation of economic growth. After four bear markets, the tenfold stocks running out in two years are concentrated in New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) industry, which is very different from the main melody of the previous bull market. ② Obvious advantages on the supply side: the high-frequency tenfold stock industry is concentrated in upstream resource goods + special consumer goods. The possible explanation is the short cycle limit of 10 times in two years after the bear market, and the release on the supply side is slower than that on the demand side, resulting in the simultaneous rise of volume and price. ③ Large market capitalization companies are more dominant. The possible reason is that the two-year time limit is enough to drive the New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) industrial chain of economic growth and transformation. It is better to be able to shoulder the heavy responsibility in one's early years. The new industrial chain with enough length and the leading companies in the industry are more in line with the growth expectations in a short time. ④ Nonlinear breakthrough in profit growth: aerial refueling. In the two years after the bear market, the profits of most companies increased from the first two years of the bear market to the second two years after the bear market. The profits further accelerated and refuelled in the air. ⑤ Try to avoid overestimation. Ten times of the stocks that came out of the bottom of the bear market in two years, there are few companies with high valuation in the starting position, and the overvalued value overdraw in advance, which has the growth space for the next two years. ⑥ It doesn't matter how much the bear market falls. It has little impact on tenfold stocks in two years. There is no typical commonality in the four observation intervals. The panic in the bear market will lead to the indiscriminate killing of individual stocks.
Ten times stocks in 10 years: consumption of science and technology resources, inflection point of long-term performance, small market value and valuation are not important. ① Consumption has crossed the cycle into a tenfold stock concentration camp, but medicine is being challenged. From the perspective of 10 years, technology tenfold stocks have emerged, mainly hardware. Cyclical resource products put more emphasis on supply side constraints. ② The dilemma reversed and the inflection point of long-term performance appeared. The time has expanded from 2 years to 10 years. The ten times of stocks coming out of the bottom of the bear market have the most obvious impact on performance growth. Different from the nonlinear breakthrough of performance from the perspective of two years, the tenfold stocks ushered in a long-term performance inflection point before and after the bear market in 10 years. ③ Small market value companies are more dominant. In the early stage of the long cycle, the small market value obtained the starting line advantage, which is consistent with the conclusion of our previous special research on tenfold stocks. ④ Initial valuation is not important. Ten fold stocks in 10 years, with sustained and stable performance growth, the impact of the valuation at the bottom of the bear market is weak, which is consistent with the conclusion of our previous special research on ten fold stocks. ⑤ It doesn't matter how much the bear market falls. Two years after the short-term bear market, tenfold stocks have little to do with the previous decline, and it has nothing to do with prolonging the cycle. The panic in the bear market will lead to the indiscriminate decline of individual stocks.
Risk warning: global epidemic spread risk and vaccine effectiveness; Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Inflation soared sharply in the short term and monetary policy tightened rapidly; Historical experience does not represent the future.
