The US dollar index continued to rise, the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed significantly, Ted interest rate spread narrowed significantly, and China’s capital balance was loose. Last week (2022040420220408), the US dollar index continued to rise. As of April 5, 2022, the net long position increased slightly. The interest rate gap between China and the United States has narrowed significantly, the nominal / real interest rates of US bonds have increased significantly, and inflation expectations have also increased. For overseas, Ted interest rate spread narrowed significantly, and offshore dollar liquidity continued to improve; For China, the balance of inter-bank funds is loose, the liquidity stratification continues to ease, and the term spread (10y-1y) widens slightly. In terms of trading heat, the trading heat and volatility of real estate, construction and other sectors are still at a relatively high level in history; In terms of research, the research heat of computer, electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances, food and beverage, banking, Dianxin, nonferrous metals and other sectors ranked first, while the research heat of building materials, banking and other sectors increased rapidly month on month.
Northward trading continued to flow out, while the configuration sector was obviously sold first and then returned slightly. Last week (2022040620220408), the northbound allocation market sold 779 million yuan of a shares, and the northbound trading market sold 4.718 billion yuan of a shares. On a daily basis, the northward allocation sector sold obviously first, and then bought A-Shares slightly; Northbound trading continued to sell a shares. In terms of industry, the consensus between northbound trading and configuration is to net buy banking, Dianxin, construction, power and utilities, commerce and retail sectors, and net sell pharmaceutical, transportation, electronics, nonferrous metals, automobile, computer, machinery, consumer services and other industries. In terms of style, the northward configuration / trading sector net buys the large market value sector at the same time, and net sells the medium / small market growth and small market value sector, while there are obvious differences in other types of style sectors. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation board, the northward allocation board net purchased Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 849 million yuan, 369 million yuan and 179 million yuan respectively. In terms of market value, the allocation disk last week mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in e-commerce, retail and other sectors.
The activity of the two financial institutions is still at an all-time low and rebounded slightly month on month. Last week (2022040620220408), Liangrong sold a net 3.466 billion yuan, mainly buying real estate, consumer services, construction, food and beverage, coal, non bank and other sectors, and mainly selling banking, Dianxin, medicine, computer, electronics, military industry and other sectors. The proportion of financing purchases in construction, steel, building materials, household appliances, non bank, machinery, real estate, media and other sectors increased month on month, but they were all below the historical center. In terms of style, Liangrong only net buys small cap value / growth sectors.
Public offering positions fell slightly, and ETFs mainly held by individuals were used as proxy variables to show that Jimin continued to “copy the bottom” funds. Based on the calculation of the quadratic programming method: the A-share position of the active partial stock fund fell slightly last week (2022040620220408). After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased the position of TMT, Dianxin, medicine, military industry, consumer services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, coal and other sectors, and mainly reduced the position of building materials, steel and iron, banking, construction, chemical industry, food and beverage, real estate and other sectors. Last week, ETFs mainly held by individuals were continuously net subscribed, which means that Jimin may still be in the state of “selling up and buying down”. Among them, ETFs related to TMT, medicine, new energy, cycle and other sectors were mainly net subscribed, and ETFs related to financial real estate and other sectors were net redeemed. The public offering has a high degree of consensus with its debt side (individuals), while buying TMT, new energy, medicine and other sectors, and selling financial and real estate sectors. For trend traders, Liangrong mainly buys real estate chain, infrastructure chain and some consumer sectors; Northbound trading mainly bought sectors such as finance, new energy, real estate chain and infrastructure chain. Generally speaking, the overall consensus of the market is low, and the purchase consensus is relatively high only in the sectors such as Dianxin, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. It is worth mentioning that public offering and foreign investment may be obvious rivals to each other in some growth and value sectors: Based on the calculation of the quadratic programming method, at present, active partial equity funds are still mainly Buying TMT, new energy, medicine and other growth sectors, slightly increasing the allocation of coal sectors, mainly reducing the allocation of infrastructure chain, real estate chain and financial sectors. Affected by the sharp rise of US bond interest rate, the northbound trading market is withdrawn as a whole, Still choose to buy more value oriented banks, real estate chains and infrastructure chains, and sell TMT, medicine and other sectors; The long-term funds represented by the northward allocation sector mainly buy banks, new energy, some cycles (petroleum, petrochemical, coal) and some consumption (food and beverage, trade and retail) sectors, and sell some TMT and pharmaceutical sectors.
Risk tip: measurement error.
