A week's events
China: the national standing committee will act to stabilize market expectations, and the multi land real estate policy will continue to be relaxed. Since April, Quzhou, Dalian, Qinhuangdao, Mianyang and Lanzhou have successively relaxed real estate policies, including relaxing purchase and sale restrictions and increasing the amount of provident fund loans. It is expected that more provinces and cities will follow suit to relax house purchase policies and promote the recovery of real estate sales, but there is still uncertainty under the disturbance of the epidemic situation; During the three-day Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, the number of tourists and tourism revenue across the country have decreased year-on-year, but the proportion of tourists in the province has increased. In terms of transportation mode, the impact of the epidemic on road travel is relatively small, and civil aviation travel has been significantly frustrated. If the epidemic is effectively controlled, may day travel is expected to rebound; On June 6, the national development and Reform Commission introduced the main achievements and development objectives of Beidou development. It is expected that the total output value of Beidou industrial chain will continue to grow rapidly during the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of upstream and downstream industrial chains; On June 6, Li Keqiang presided over the national standing committee meeting to make relevant work arrangements from three aspects: stabilizing market expectations, bailing out industries in extreme poverty and finding out the bottom of employment, and timely using monetary policy tools. The epidemic situation and the international situation have led to increased pressure and weaker expectations for steady growth. The top priority is to stabilize market expectations. This time, pension will also be included in the key areas supported by monetary policy. At the same time, it will also work with the government to promote consumption and effective investment, including affordable housing, key infrastructure projects, manufacturing, etc; In March, the PMI of Caixin service industry was 42.0%, down 8.2 percentage points from the previous value. At present, the service industry is facing challenges such as weak demand, rising costs, shrinking employment and weakening expectations. If the epidemic situation is properly controlled and epidemic prevention measures are gradually relaxed, the situation of the service industry may improve, and the policy force is expected to help the service industry resume business activities as soon as possible. Overseas: the conflict intensifies the problem of inflation in Europe, and the pace of interest rate increase and table contraction of the Federal Reserve may be accelerated. On April 1 local time, the U.S. Department of labor announced that the non-agricultural employment population increased by 431000 in March, which remained strong. At the same time, U.S. inflation and energy prices were also rising. It is expected that the Federal Reserve's policy tightening and overweight in the first half of the year will be more likely, and the poor expectation will have an impact on the capital market; On the 1st local time, Eurostat announced that the CPI of the euro zone in March soared by 7.5% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected and previous values. The surge in energy prices is the main driving force. In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also disrupted the already tense supply chain and weakened consumer confidence. The market is expected to increase interest rates in the euro zone, and the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 60 basis points before the end of the year; On the 6th, the Asian Development Bank released the Asian Development Outlook. The economy of Asian developing countries, including China and India, will grow by 5.2% this year, which is lower than the forecast and previous values. In addition to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the covid-19 epidemic, the rise in commodity prices and the acceleration of monetary policy tightening in Europe and the United States will also cause instability in the international environment. It is expected that the subsequent inflation and tightening wave will still be the main factors affecting asset performance this year, and there are great variables in the first half of the year; On the 6th local time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the interest rate meeting in March, strengthening the expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50 basis points at a time, and showing that the Federal Reserve may tighten the currency by raising interest rates sharply for many times and shrinking its balance sheet faster; On the 5th local time, the RBA deleted the words "be patient" in its policy statement, releasing hawkish signals that Australia is expected to raise interest rates in June
High frequency data: upstream: Brent crude oil decreased by 6.96% on a weekly basis, while iron ore and cathode copper prices increased by 4.53% and 0.28% on a weekly basis respectively; Middle reaches: the price of rebar rose by 1.67% on a weekly basis, and the price of thermal coal rose by 3.59% on a weekly basis; Downstream: real estate sales fell by 70.45% on a week-on-week basis, and the monthly auto retail performance is still weak; Prices: the price of vegetables decreased by 3.66% on a weekly basis, and the price of pork increased by 0.60% on a weekly basis.
Focus next week: China's CPI and PPI in March (Monday); CPI of the United States and Germany in March (Tuesday); China's March trade account and us march PPI (Wednesday); The European Central Bank's interest rate resolution and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in April (Thursday).
Risk tip: the epidemic situation has further deteriorated, the geopolitical impact has exceeded expectations, and overseas inflation is high
