The real estate industry is cyclical. Due to the limitation of data duration, we compared the differences between this cycle and the previous two rounds. Specifically, there are six main points: the house price is relatively strong, and the large house type (> 144 square meters) is more favored by the market, the decline in real estate development investment is large, although it is not obvious, the sales are indeed colder, the asset liability ratio of real estate enterprises is the highest in history, and the problem of enterprise thunder explosion is more prominent, The interest rate environment faced by property buyers is different, and the yield of financial products is far lower than the loan interest rate.
In addition to the high leverage of real estate enterprises in 2015, we can find that the biggest difference between the real estate industry and the real estate industry before the current round of debt explosion is that the overall price of real estate enterprises is different from that before the current round of debt explosion. All the current real estate support policies are similar to those in the previous two rounds of industry lows, that is, vigorously liberalizing the demand side, relaxing the identification standard of the first house, reducing the mortgage interest rate, canceling the sales and purchase restrictions, etc., but there is still no good solution to the core debt risk problem. We believe that on the basis of previous measures, we should actively solve the debt risk of specific real estate enterprises and stabilize market sentiment, so as to help the real estate industry really stabilize and recover.
