Event:
On April 11, the central bank released the monetary and financial data for March 2002: in March, the new loans were 3.13 trillion yuan and the expected loans were 2.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 395.1 billion yuan year-on-year; Social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan and is expected to be 3.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.28 trillion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of social finance stock was 10.6%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; The year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 9.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.
Comments:
The credit environment continued to be repaired, the corporate financing was generally stable, the structure needed to be improved, and the resident loan was weaker than expected in March, which further confirmed the "wide credit". In March, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.28 trillion yuan year-on-year, better than market expectations, dispelling the market's concern about whether credit can be repaired. In the interpretation of the data in February, we made it clear that the monthly fluctuation of the data at the beginning of the year should not be over interpreted, and the credit repair is on the way; In the first three months, the new social integration reached 12.06 trillion yuan, a record high. RMB loans, corporate bonds and government bond financing were the main contributions to the year-on-year increment. Non-standard financing was not a drag, but also conducive to credit repair. The overall financing of enterprises is relatively stable, the structure needs to be improved, and the impulse of bills and short-term loans is obvious. In March, new loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 395.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Short-term financing of enterprises was the main contribution. Bill financing and short-term loans of enterprises increased by more than 900 billion yuan year-on-year. Medium and long-term loans of enterprises rebounded in March; Overall, in the first quarter, bill financing and enterprise short-term loans were also directly driven by loan growth, while medium and long-term loans of enterprises and resident credit were weak. Residents' demand continues to be weak, or some are dragged down by repeated epidemics. In March, the medium and long-term loans and short-term loans of new residents increased by 250.4 billion yuan and 139.4 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, continuing the double decline trend since December last year. On the one hand, it is due to the downturn of residents' house purchase and consumer demand, on the other hand, it is also related to the obstruction of offline activities caused by the repeated epidemic. In early April, high-frequency real estate sales continued to decline, which may point to the continuation of the interference of the epidemic on Residents' credit. Reiterated view: the disturbance of the epidemic does not change the trend of credit repair, and steady growth has turned to the "second step". The repeated outbreaks and the interference to economic activities may continue to be reflected in the monetary and financial data in April; However, with the consolidation of the "policy bottom", the repair trend of the credit environment has become clear, or gradually transition from total stabilization to structural improvement. Steady growth has gradually shifted from monetary easing and steady growth related financing in the first step to the improvement of physical demand in the second step. With the gradual decline of the impact of the epidemic and the appearance of the effect of stable growth, there is no need to be too pessimistic because the "economic bottom" is imminent.
Routine tracking: credit and government bonds boosted social finance, which exceeded expectations. M1 leveled month on month and M2 rebounded slightly. Most of the sub items of social finance increased year-on-year, and the total contribution of RMB loans and government bonds was nearly 70%. In March, RMB loans increased by 3.2 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 480 billion yuan year-on-year; Government bonds increased by 390 billion yuan to 705.2 billion yuan year-on-year; In non-standard financing, off balance sheet bills changed from negative to positive, trust loans decreased by 153.2 billion yuan year-on-year, and entrusted loans became positive; Corporate bonds, stocks and other direct financing changed little, with a year-on-year increase of less than 20 billion yuan.
The credit exceeded expectations, the structure needs to be improved, the medium and long-term loans of residents continued to drag down, and the bills are still impulse. In March, new loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 395.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, residents' medium and long-term loans decreased by nearly 250 billion yuan year-on-year, and short-term loans decreased by nearly 140 billion yuan; Medium and long-term loans of enterprises turned positive slightly year-on-year, and short-term loans increased by more than double year-on-year; The impulse of bills continued, with a year-on-year increase of more than 470 billion yuan, and non bank loans decreased slightly and changed little. M1 leveled and M2 rebounded. In March, M1 was flat at 4.7%, while M2 was 9.7% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. M1 leveled year-on-year or pointed to the activation of enterprise deposits, which has yet to be repaired; Among the sub items of deposits, the deposits of residents and enterprises increased by 760 billion yuan to 930 billion yuan year-on-year, the fiscal deposits decreased by 357.1 billion yuan year-on-year, which pointed to the force of fiscal expenditure, and the non bank deposits decreased year-on-year, or related to factors such as fund redemption under net value fluctuation.
Risk tip: the policy effect is less than expected, and the epidemic situation is repeated.
