Events
On April 11, the National Bureau of statistics released China's consumer price (CPI) and industrial producer price (PPI) data in March. Among them, in March, CPI rose by 1.50% year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.60 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, which was the same as that of the previous month; In March, PPI increased by 8.30% year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.50 percentage points lower than that of the previous month and a month on month increase of 1.10%.
Comments
In March, CPI food items decreased by 1.50% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate increased by 2.40 percentage points compared with the previous month. Among the food items, the tide of hoarding goods and the superimposed supply are difficult to push up the price of fresh vegetables. However, at present, the stock of fertile sows is running at a high level, the supply of pork is sufficient, and the downward price of pork makes the overall CPI growth rate show a moderate rise.
In March, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI non food prices rebounded slightly, with a year-on-year increase of 2.20%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points over the previous month. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international energy prices continued to rise. Under this pattern, the growth rate of China's fuel and hydropower prices increased slightly. At the same time, the national epidemic is "multi-point flowering", and service consumption is still weak.
In terms of PPI, the impact of geopolitical conflict continued, and the prices of China's energy mining and processing related industries rose. In the future, with the reduction of the intensity of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the role of pushing up oil prices will be weakened. At the same time, the Federal Reserve will start the interest rate increase cycle to curb inflation. It is expected that the growth rate of international oil prices may slow down in the short term. China's policy of "ensuring supply and stabilizing price" continues, while the high base effect continues to appear. It is expected that PPI will continue to decline in the short term.
In March, the "ppi-cpi" scissors gap fell back to 6.8, down 1.10 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of China, at present, there are many outbreaks of the epidemic, the demand side is difficult to recover, and the operating pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises continues to increase. From a global perspective, overseas geopolitical conflicts have led to sustained imported inflation pressure. At the same time, the opening of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle has led to limited monetary easing space for the central bank, and the pressure of "steady growth" has further increased.
The risk suggests that under the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there is a risk of oil price fluctuation; Covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations; There may be errors in the results of inflation prediction model.
