Event the central bank released the financial data for March 2022: (1) the new RMB loans were 3.13 trillion yuan, and the market expected 2.64 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 1.23 trillion yuan. (2) The scale of social financing is 4.65 trillion yuan, and the market is expected to be 3.63 trillion yuan, up from 1.19 trillion yuan. (3) M2 was 9.7% year-on-year, the market expectation was 9.1%, and the previous value was 9.2%.
The total volume increased sharply, but the structure is still poor: the credit data in March exceeded expectations, adding 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 400 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the introduction of various policies, the contribution of enterprise short-term loans and enterprise bill financing increased by 434.1 billion yuan and 471.2 billion yuan year-on-year respectively. However, the year-on-year increment of medium and long-term loans is still limited, which also makes the credit structure poor. This also shows that under the care of the central bank, the current social liquidity is abundant, but due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors, the willingness and ability of enterprise capital expenditure are weak, and the landing effect of wide credit is still limited.
The resident side is still in the state of reducing leverage as a whole: in March, the short-term loans and medium and long-term loans of residents continued to increase less year-on-year. On the one hand, due to the repeated epidemic, the consumer demand of residents was insufficient; On the other hand, corresponding to the downturn in real estate sales, under the impact of the epidemic and the impact of residents’ income, residents’ demand for house purchase continues to remain depressed.
Government bond financing continued to increase year-on-year: in March, the scale of social financing increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year. In addition to the support of corporate credit, off balance sheet non-standard and government bond financing also contribute. Among them, the main incremental contribution of off balance sheet non-standard came from trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills, with an increase of 153.2 billion yuan and 258.2 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, mainly due to the low base in the same period last year. Government bond financing increased by 705.2 billion yuan, an increase of 392.1 billion yuan year-on-year, which corresponds to the accelerated issuance of various special bonds. However, under the repeated epidemic situation, the effect of converting funds into landing projects has been hindered.
Social finance has increased rapidly, but credit relief is still affected by the epidemic: on the whole, with the positive promotion of various stable growth policies, the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and social finance have warmed up. Among them, at the end of March, M2 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively; At the end of March, the stock of social financing scale increased by 10.6% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.
However, under the repeated influence of the epidemic, the recovery of real estate demand and the landing effect of infrastructure will be dragged down. Then, under the pressure of economic growth, the follow-up steady growth policy will continue to be introduced, the liquidity is expected to remain loose, and the growth rate of social finance will also be supported. However, in the end, the landing effect of wide credit needs to pay further attention to the changes of the epidemic situation.
The risk indicates that the epidemic situation is accelerating; In the next stage, the economy will accelerate its decline.
