The total volume has increased, and there is still room for improvement in the structure
In March, M2 was 9.7% year-on-year and 9.2% of the previous value; M1 was 4.7% year-on-year, and the previous value was 4.7%. New RMB loans reached 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 400 billion yuan year-on-year and 130 billion yuan less month on month. The balance of various loans increased by 11.4% year-on-year, the same as last month. Social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year and 3.46 trillion yuan month on month. The stock of social finance increased by 10.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month.
M2 growth rate increased. It may be affected by the acceleration of credit supply and the increase of fiscal expenditure. In addition, the lower base in the same period last year (10.1% to 9.4%) is also an important reason; The growth rate of M1 is relatively stable, but in the future, with the decline of the base and the expected improvement, the growth rate is expected to rebound.
Under the high base of medium and long-term loans, enterprises still achieved year-on-year increase. The increase in corporate loans over the same period last year was mainly contributed by short-term loans and bill financing. The medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 1.34 trillion yuan. From the perspective of the merger from January to February, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased year-on-year for the first time since June last year, and the base number in the same period last year was relatively high, indicating that the demand for physical financing has improved to a certain extent. From the perspective of residents, both short-term loans and medium and long-term loans performed poorly, respectively showing that residents’ consumption is not strong under the impact of the epidemic and that real estate sales may still be relatively depressed at this stage. From the perspective of consolidated enterprises and residents, the performance of medium and long-term loans is still weak, and the year-on-year growth rate of medium and long-term loan balance decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 11.61% compared with the previous month.
The growth rate of social finance picked up. In March, the growth rate of social financing stock rebounded to 10.6%, the highest since July last year, and the wide credit is gradually being realized. From the perspective of the structure of social finance, social finance increased by 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year in March, mainly contributed by RMB loans, government bond financing and non-standard financing.
On the whole, in terms of total amount, the overall performance of financial data in March was good, the growth rate of social finance gradually picked up, and the money supply remained loose. From the perspective of the structure of financial data, the phenomenon of short-term impulse is still obvious, and the medium and long-term financing demand is still relatively weak, reflecting that the economy is still under downward pressure, and the monetary policy may be further relaxed.
Call the epidemic a short-term disturbance to inflation
In March 2022, the CPI of the current month was 1.5% year-on-year, and the previous value was 0.9%; The month on month ratio was 0%, and the former value was 0.6%; PPI was 8.3% year-on-year in the current month, and the previous value was 8.8%; The month on month ratio was 1.1%, and the previous value was 0.5%.
CPI growth is stronger than seasonality. From the perspective of exchanges, the CPI in March often fell seasonally, with an average of – 0.7% in the same period in recent five years, while the 0% month on month increase this year was stronger than the seasonality, which pushed up the CPI, which increased significantly compared with the previous month.
The year-on-year decline in food prices narrowed. Food CPI fell by – 1.5% year-on-year, 2.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Keeping pork prices low is still the main factor affecting food prices. After the Spring Festival, pork enters the off-season of consumption and the supply is relatively sufficient. In addition, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 0.4% month on month, significantly exceeding the seasonality, with an average of – 10.4% in the same period in recent five years. The vegetable supply chain may be significantly blocked due to the impact of the epidemic in China. In addition, the rise in international food prices such as wheat, corn and soybeans caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also had a certain impact on the prices of some related products.
Energy prices have risen significantly. Non food CPI was 2.2% year-on-year and 2.1% of the previous value, maintaining an upward trend, 0.3% month on month, which was also higher than the average of – 0.1% in recent five years. Driven by the rise of international crude oil and other energy prices, the price of industrial consumer goods increased by 0.3 percentage points month on month (MOM) by 1.1%. The price of services was mainly affected by the decline in demand after the festival and the impact of the epidemic, which turned negative month on month, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year.
Core CPI remained stable. From the perspective of core CPI, 1.1% year-on-year was the same as last month, and – 0.1% month on month was basically the same as the average value in the same period in recent five years, reflecting that China’s demand is still not strong.
Under the influence of the base, PPI maintained a downward trend. In March, PPI was 1.1% month on month, the highest in nearly five months. However, due to the rise of PPI from 1.7% to 4.4% year-on-year in the same period last year, the base increased significantly, so PPI remained down year-on-year. Due to geopolitical and other factors, the prices of international bulk commodities continued to rise, driving the prices of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , non-ferrous metals and other related industries to continue to rise. In the future, although the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still repeated, the overall impact tends to ease. The United States and IEA have successively announced the release of crude oil reserves, and the risk of further upward oil prices may be weakened. The measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices of commodities such as Chinese raw materials will continue to be promoted. Under the influence of high base numbers, the year-on-year downward trend of PPI may continue.
Overall, the epidemic has disturbed inflation in the short term, but after the epidemic, the relevant supply constraints may be significantly alleviated, and CPI may still maintain a moderate rise. During the year, the upward trend of CPI and the downward trend of PPI may be maintained. At the same time, the upward pressure of CPI is relatively controllable on the whole, and China’s inflation may not become the constraint of monetary policy during the year.
Financing funds
On April 8, the balance of A-share financing was 1566530 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 5.863 billion yuan; The balance of margin trading was 1656499 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.532 billion yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 147656 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 6.194 billion yuan.
Land stock connect and Hong Kong stock connect
On April 11, the net purchase turnover of land stock connect on that day was -5.762 billion yuan, including 45.05 billion yuan of purchase turnover and 50.811 billion yuan of sales turnover, with a cumulative net purchase turnover of 1602352 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $68 million on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $14.157 billion and a sale transaction of HK $14.088 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2282205 billion.
Money market
On April 11, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor overnight interest rate was 1.8560%, up 10.50bp, Shibor one week was 1.9470%, down 3.80bp. The weighted interest rate of pledged repo of depository institutions was 1.8395% overnight, up 10.42bp and 1.9075% a week, down 3.22bp. The 10-year yield to maturity of China national debt was 2.7680%, up 1.51bp.
Overseas stock market
On April 11, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 3430808 points, down 1.19%; The S & P 500 index closed at 441253 points, down 1.69%; The NASDAQ index closed at 1341196 points, down 2.18%. European stock markets, French CAC index closed at 655581 points, up 0.12%; Germany’s DAX index closed at 1419278 points, down 0.64%; The FTSE 100 index closed at 761831, down 0.67%. In the Asia Pacific market, the Nikkei index closed at 2682152 points, down 0.61%; The Hang Seng Index closed at 2120830, down 3.03%.
Foreign exchange rate
On April 11, the dollar index rose 0.14% to 999896. The euro rose 0.06% against the dollar to 1.0883. The dollar rose 0.89 per cent against the yen to 1253915. Sterling fell 0.05% against the dollar to 1.3028. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3699, depreciating by 0.10%. The spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3884, depreciating by 0.31%. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3645, up 0.01%.
Gold, crude oil
On April 11, Comex gold futures rose 0.36% to close at US $195750/oz. WTI crude oil futures fell 1.32% to US $91.44 / barrel. Brent crude oil futures fell 2.98% to US $99.35/barrel. COMEX copper futures fell 1.76% to close at US $4.6240/lb. LME copper three-month futures fell 1.80% to close at US $10158 / ton.
