Event:
On April 11, the Bureau of statistics released the price data of March: CPI increased by 1.5% year-on-year, expected to be 1.3%, and the previous value was 0.9%; PPI rose 8.3% year-on-year, expected to be 8.1%, and the previous value was 8.8%.
Comments:
CPI exceeded expectations, mainly due to the phased interference of the epidemic, which pushed up food prices and the continuation of the rise in the price of energy products
The repeated interference of the epidemic and the rise in the price of energy products promoted the CPI to exceed expectations. In March, the year-on-year increase of CPI expanded by 0.6 percentage points to 1.5%, higher than the expected 1.3%, and the core CPI was flat by 1.1% year-on-year; CPI was flat month on month, up from 0.6% last month. In the sub items, the food chain ratio decreased from up to - 1.2%, higher than - 2.2% in the same period in recent years, which is related to the rise in the prices of fresh vegetables and eggs under the repeated epidemic; Non food products rose 0.3% month on month (MOM) on a super seasonal basis. Among them, the rise in energy prices continued to drive the recovery of transportation and communications, and the rise in other goods and services increased by 0.9 percentage points month on month (MOM), making a great contribution.
Energy and other costs remain high, which may further strengthen the dominance of cost side pressure. The cost pressure of raw materials in the early stage has continued to be obvious, some durable goods with relatively low demand price elasticity have increased significantly, and CPI sub items such as transportation fuel and household appliances have repeatedly reached new highs. Under the tight balance between coal supply and demand, industrial and commercial electricity prices have been raised successively in various regions, and the proportion of rising during peak hours in many regions has exceeded 50%; At the same time, with the liberalization of overseas epidemic prevention and control, the demand for crude oil increases and the supply elasticity is limited, or the oil price remains high, further pushing up the pressure on the cost side.
The price rise of upstream mining and other means of production supported the lower expectation of PPI, and some middle and downstream manufacturing industries increased prices one after another
PPI fell as scheduled and the range was lower than expected, and both production and means of living contributed. In March, the increase of PPI was 8.3% year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points, higher than the 8.1% expected by the market, and the month on month increase was expanded by 0.6 percentage points to 1.1%. Among the major categories, the growth of means of production expanded by 0.7 percentage points to 1.4% month on month, and the three sub items contributed, with mining, raw materials and processing rising by 3.5, 1 and 0.3 percentage points month on month respectively; The month on month growth of means of living expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, and food, general daily necessities and durable consumer goods all contributed.
By industry, the upstream crude oil chain and non-ferrous chain led the rise, and most of the middle and downstream manufacturing industries rose in price one after another. Geopolitics and other factors promoted the continuous rise of international commodity prices. Among them, the growth of oil exploitation and oil processing increased by 3.7 and 2.9 percentage points to 14.1% and 7.9% month on month, and the price of chemical manufacturing also increased significantly. The growth of nonferrous smelting and nonferrous mining increased by 2.7% and 1.5% month on month respectively, and the growth increased by 0.7 and 0.1 percentage points respectively; The prices of the middle and lower reaches of the manufacturing industry accounted for the vast majority, and the prices of equipment manufacturing, mineral manufacturing, wine and beverage increased by more than 0.3 percentage points.
Reiterate the view that CPI inflation exceeded expectations or potential risks during the year. In March, the super seasonal price rise of some foods in CPI showed signs of repeated interference of the epidemic, and the continued recovery of non food items was also related to the cost side pressure pushed up by the price rise of some raw materials. In the future, the repeated interference of the epidemic on logistics may have a phased impact on commodity supply and cost, and then on terminal prices; At the same time, crude oil and other bulk commodities remain high, further accelerating the dominance of cost side pressure, or moving the rising range and rhythm of CPI inflation forward.
Risk tip: the pig supply is accelerated and the demand repair is less than expected.
