Event: China's CPI in March rose by 1.5% year-on-year, expected to rise by 1.3%, and the previous value rose by 0.9%. In March, PPI increased by 8.3% year-on-year, expected to increase by 8.1%, and the previous value increased by 8.8%.
The year-on-year increase of CPI has expanded, and pork prices are still falling. In March, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI was 1.5%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month. Specifically, food prices fell by 1.5%, 2.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, affecting the decline of CPI by about 0.28 percentage points. In food, the price of pork decreased by 41.4%, 1.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, with a continuous negative growth year-on-year; The year-on-year increase in the prices of fresh fruits (4.3%), edible vegetable oil (6.1%) and aquatic products (4.2%) fell compared with the previous month. Non food prices rose by 2.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, affecting the CPI rise by about 1.77 percentage points. Among non food products, international energy prices led to a year-on-year increase in industrial consumer goods. In March, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 3.5%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The prices of gasoline, diesel and LPG rose by 24.6%, 26.9% and 27.1% respectively, both of which were higher than that of the previous month. Service prices rose by 1.1% and fell by 0.1 percentage points. Among them, the price of air tickets decreased by 0.2% from 18.0% last month; The prices of scenic spot tickets and accommodation outside rose by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively, both of which fell.
CPI was flat month on month, with non food items as the main driving items. In March, the CPI rose 0.6% from the previous month to flat. Among them, the increase of food prices from 1.4% to 1.2%, affecting the decline of CPI by about 0.22 percentage points. In food, affected by the decline of consumer demand and sufficient supply after the festival, the price of pork decreased by 9.3% month on month, and the price of chicken, beef, aquatic products and fresh fruits also decreased by 1.0% - 2.3% month on month; Affected by the rise in international prices of wheat, corn and soybeans and the Chinese epidemic, the prices of flour, edible vegetable oil, fresh vegetables and eggs rose by 1.7%, 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Non food prices rose by 0.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI rise by about 0.25 percentage points. In non food, the rise in energy prices led to the rise of industrial consumer goods prices by 1.1% month on month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. Service prices fell by 0.2% from flat last month. Among them, the drop in demand after the festival and the repeated epidemic caused restrictions on Residents' consumption scenes. Air tickets, film and performance tickets, transportation rental fees and tourism prices decreased by 10.0%, 7.6%, 3.5% and 2.6% respectively.
The year-on-year increase of PPI continued to fall, and the month on month increase continued. In March, the year-on-year increase of PPI fell, recording 8.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production increased by 10.7%, the increase fell by 0.7 percentage points, and the price of means of living increased by 0.9%, which was the same as that of the previous month. Among the 40 industrial categories surveyed, 37 prices rose, an increase of 1 over the previous month. Among the main industries, the year-on-year growth of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry (18.3%), chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry (15.7%) and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry (9.4%) decreased by 2.1, 4.0 and 3.5 percentage points respectively. The oil and natural gas exploitation industry (47.4%), petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry (32.8%) and power and heat production and supply industry (8.7%), with year-on-year growth rates of 5.5, 2.6 and 0.2 percentage points respectively. On a month on month basis, PPI rose by 1.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month. In terms of industries, affected by the continuous geopolitical conflict and the low inventory of overseas related commodities, commodity prices remained high. The price of oil and natural gas exploitation industry rose by 14.1%; The price of petroleum, coal and other fuels processing industry increased by 7.9%, the price of chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased by 2.0%, and the price of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 1.8%; The price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 2.7%. In total, the above industries affected the rise of PPI by about 0.77 percentage points, accounting for 70% of the total increase.
In April, CPI maintained a moderate upward trend year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will fall further under the base effect. On the whole, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI increased in March, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI decreased, and the ppi-cpi scissors gap narrowed. Looking forward to April, in terms of CPI, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in April maintained a moderate upward trend under the influence of factors such as overseas imported inflation, the bottom of pork prices has not yet been reached, and the repeated epidemic has led to weak demand in China. In terms of PPI, the current geopolitical policy conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not completely clear. In the short term, the prices of international commodities such as crude oil may continue to maintain a high shock pattern. However, under the high base effect of last year, combined with the continuous promotion of China's policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the year-on-year growth reading of PPI may continue to fall, but it will still remain high.
Risk tips: repeated outbreaks at home and abroad, changes in commodity prices, and unexpected changes in China's policies
