Event:
On April 11, 2022, the people's Bank of China released the financial data for March 2022. In March, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan over the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.4 percentage points.
Main points:
In March, the total amount of social finance was bright and the structure was poor. In March, the total amount of social finance increased year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.4 percentage points month on month. However, in terms of structure, the increase is still mainly driven by the steady growth policy, and the actual demand of residents and enterprises is weak. Under the steady growth policy, the issuance of local bonds was accelerated. In March, the issuance and net financing scale of local bonds in single month and Q1 increased significantly year-on-year, and the pre issuance played a positive support for social finance. The demand of residents and enterprises has not recovered. In RMB loans, residents' short-term, medium and long-term loans increased less, enterprise loans were mainly driven by short-term loans, and the increase in medium and long-term loans was only 10 billion yuan.
The increase of fundamental pressure under the impact of the epidemic is the main reason. The number of confirmed cases increased sharply in late March, and the epidemic had an impact on the fundamentals. The logistics index and the price of important building materials continued to decline from mid March to the end of March, resulting in a small increase in the overall loan demand of residents and enterprises.
A new round of steady growth policies needs to be launched. After the meeting of the Finance Committee on April 16, the two important meetings of the national Standing Committee and the Symposium on economic situation held on April 6 and 7 stressed that the fundamentals "unexpected factors exceeded expectations", and the policy should "put steady growth in a more prominent position". It is expected that a new round of steady growth policy will be launched in the next stage.
It is expected that the monetary policy will be implemented in the form of reserve requirement reduction rather than interest rate reduction. On the one hand, the current monetary policy focuses on supporting the real economy, and the RRR reduction can be accurately transmitted through directional and other means; Second, in history, China did not cut interest rates during the Fed's interest rate hike, but there have been RRR cuts many times. Therefore, RRR reduction is a more suitable choice for the current global interest rate hike environment.
Risk tip: the macro-economy fluctuated more than expected, and the monetary policy tightened more than expected.
