In fact, the loan situation is not so satisfactory:
1) in fact, the growth of loans has accelerated slightly. A 45.4 billion loan from non banking financial institutions expired in March. If this impact is put aside, the growth rate of loan balance has accelerated by 0.1%, which is the first time in nine months;
2) however, the minus item is the medium and long-term loans of residents and enterprises, the long-term confidence of enterprises is not stable, and the willingness of residents to buy houses has not improved;
3) the increment of loans is mainly short-term loans and bills, and the growth rate of the loan scale obtained by the enterprise department has accelerated by about 1% in the last quarter. These may be administrative rescue measures, but they will indeed alleviate the liquidity risk of some enterprises.
What really drives the acceleration of social finance is actually government bonds:
1) Q1 government bonds increased by 1.6 trillion this year. According to the breakdown, almost all the increase is local government special bonds;
2) local governments are still trying their best to broaden credit. Compared with a quarter ago, this structure has not changed much except that banks have delivered more short-term blood to enterprises;
3) this is also the main reason for the deviation of the current loan and M2 trend.
However, we should also rationally look at the follow-up space of local special debt:
1) this year, the issuance pace of local special bonds has been seriously advanced. The scale of special bonds issued in the first quarter of this year has accounted for nearly 44% of the annual target. Last year, the proportion was less than 7%, and the average proportion in the past three years was 22%;
2) in the past years, the issuance scale of local special bonds has not deviated significantly from the target, and it should not be this year, which will cause the issuance scale of special bonds in the remaining months of this year to decrease by about 40% year-on-year.
From this point of view, if the short-term loan bank has tried its best, whether the wide credit can be sustained still needs a big question mark:
1) at present, the acceleration slope of corporate bonds is also slowing down. Without the support of urban investment bonds, the power of corporate bonds to broaden credit is significantly declining;
2) theoretically, the widening of credit can drive the upward movement of bond yield and stock market valuation, but due to the fragility of credit structure, this upward movement can not be seen for the time being.
A little attention should be paid to: the growth rate of M0 continued to accelerate in March, which indicates that the flame of risk appetite seems to be rekindling. At least the inflation transaction is slowly rising, but it is unclear whether this is due to the short-term impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict.
Risk tip: monetary policy exceeded expectations and economic recovery exceeded expectations
