Event: in March 2022, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, expected to be 2.64 trillion yuan, with the previous value of 1.23 trillion yuan; Social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, with an expected 3.63 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 1.19 trillion yuan; M2 was 9.7% year-on-year, 9.1% expected, and the previous value was 9.2%. M1 was 4.7% year-on-year, and the previous value was 4.7%.
I. The financial data in March exceeded expectations comprehensively, and the structure was mixed with joy and worry. Residents' loans are still weak, pointing to consumption and real estate are still weak; Bills and short-term loans in enterprise loans increased at a high rate, and the policy of broad credit still dominated; However, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises have increased significantly compared with the average value of the same period before the epidemic, pointing to the financing needs of infrastructure, manufacturing and other industries may improve on the whole; Social finance increased rapidly, with on balance sheet loans and government bonds as the main support, and the growth rate of social finance stock stabilized and rebounded again; The trust decreased year-on-year, which may increase the purchase of urban investment bonds; M1 was flat, M2 rebounded, fiscal deposits decreased more year-on-year, pointing to the acceleration of fiscal expenditure.
1. In terms of loans, the new loans in March were 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 400 billion yuan year-on-year, an increase of 706.7 billion yuan compared with the average value in the same period of the past three years. The balance of various loans was 11.4% of the previous value year-on-year, and the total amount improved. The structure points to real estate and consumption is still weak, but infrastructure and manufacturing may be relatively stable. Breakdown:
1) residents' loans are still weak in general, reflecting weak consumption and sluggish real estate. In March, resident loans increased by 753.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 394 billion yuan, a decrease of 254.5 billion yuan compared with the average in the same period of the past three years. Among them, residents' short-term loans increased by 384.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 139.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 104.5 billion yuan compared with the average in the same period of the past three years, corresponding to the year-on-year decline of 10.5% in passenger car sales, which is also related to factors such as the drag on consumption caused by the epidemic situation; Residents' medium and long-term loans increased by 373.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 250.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 145.9 billion yuan compared with the average value of the same period in the past three years, which is related to the continuous downturn in real estate sales in March. The transaction area of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities was - 47.3% year-on-year (February - 27.3%, January - 30%), which has maintained a double-digit decline for eight consecutive months.
2) corporate loans have increased significantly, bills and corporate short-term loans have increased significantly year-on-year, and the force of the broad credit policy is still dominant; At the same time, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises have doubled compared with the same period before the epidemic, indicating that the loan structure of enterprises has been improved and supported by infrastructure, manufacturing and other related needs. In March, new corporate loans increased by 2.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 880 billion yuan year-on-year, an increase of 908 billion yuan over the same period of the past three years. In terms of structure, corporate loans rebounded in an all-round way. Among them, notes on the balance sheet increased by 318.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 471.2 billion yuan, an increase of 267.8 billion yuan over the same period of the past three years; Enterprise short-term loans increased by 808.9 billion yuan, an increase of 434.1 billion yuan year-on-year, an increase of 288.9 billion yuan over the same period of the past three years. The increase of bills is confirmed by the decline of bill interest rate in the first 20 days of March. Bills and short-term loans are usually the first stage of credit stabilization, which reflects the policy level's support for wide credit. It should be pointed out that in March, the increment of medium and long-term loans of enterprises was also high, with an increase of 1.34 trillion yuan. Under the condition of high base last year, it can still increase by 14.8 billion yuan year-on-year, which is twice that of more than 500600 billion yuan before the epidemic, and the loan structure of enterprises has been improved. From the perspective of loan demand, the loan demand index shows that the loan demand in Q1 this year has improved compared with Q4 in 2021. Among them, the loan demand index of manufacturing industry and infrastructure rebounded by 3.3 and 6.5 percentage points to 70.3% and 67.3% respectively. From the perspective of PMI by industry in March, the PMI of manufacturing industry and service industry decreased compared with the previous value, and the PMI of construction industry increased slightly compared with the previous value. It is judged that most of the funds in medium and long-term loans of enterprises in March may flow into infrastructure and manufacturing industry, while the flow into real estate industry may be relatively limited. In addition, in the previous report, we suggest that the Spring Festival effect will have an impact on the loan rhythm. Generally, the loan growth is weak from the Spring Festival to the 15th day of the first month. The time point of this year's Spring Festival is located on February 1, which may lead to the advance of some credit during the Spring Festival to January. However, the Spring Festival holiday in February and the resumption of work and production after the festival also take time. Therefore, the loan in January may not be really invested in the project, resulting in the slow progress of loan in February and the acceleration of loan in March.
2. Social Finance: social finance increased sharply in March, with on balance sheet loans and government bonds as the main support, and the growth rate of social finance stock stabilized and rebounded again; The structure shows that the financial support has been strengthened, the real estate is still weak, and the financing needs of infrastructure, manufacturing and other industries have improved on the whole.
In March, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion, second only to the same period in 2020; An increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year, an increase of 809.9 billion yuan over the same period in the past three years. The stock of social finance rebounded by 0.4 percentage points to 10.6% compared with the previous value, and the stock of social finance excluding government bonds rebounded by 0.27 percentage points to 9.34% compared with the previous value, pointing to the stabilization and recovery of social finance again. Structurally, new RMB loans and government bonds are the main contributions of social finance over seasonality.
1) the high growth of new RMB loans is the main support of social finance. New RMB loans increased by 3.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 481.7 billion yuan year-on-year, 650 billion yuan more than the average in the same period of the past three years. Structurally, consumption and real estate are still weak; The policy has driven the high growth of bills and short-term loans of enterprises, and the infrastructure and manufacturing industries have formed a certain support for medium and long-term loans of enterprises, so as to realize the high growth of enterprise loans.
2) local government bonds may increase year-on-year in the second quarter, and local government bonds may continue to increase year-on-year. Government bonds increased by 705.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 392.1 billion yuan, an increase of 275.6 billion yuan over the same period in the past three years. According to wind data, the net financing amount of new special bonds of local governments in March was 409.7 billion yuan. On March 30, the national Standing Committee called for the issuance of the remaining special debt quota as soon as possible. The quota issued in advance last year was completed by the end of May and the quota issued this year was completed by the end of September, so as to speed up the commencement and construction of the project and form the physical workload as soon as possible. Therefore, it is expected that government bonds in the second quarter will bring greater support to social finance.
3) other items: trust loans decreased by 25.9 billion yuan in March, a year-on-year decrease of 153.2 billion yuan. In view of the downturn in the real estate market, it is expected that the stabilization of trust data may be related to the trust's increased purchase of urban investment bonds; The new undiscounted bank acceptance bill increased by 28.6 billion yuan, an increase of 258.2 billion yuan year-on-year, an increase of 34.3 billion yuan less than the average in the same period of the past three years. Combined with the bill interest rate falling first and then rising in March, the credit demand has been repaired, and the discount of off balance sheet bills to on balance sheet is not as "extreme" as in February.
3. Deposits: M1 was flat, M2 rebounded, and fiscal expenditure accelerated.
M1 remained unchanged at 4.7% of the previous value year on year, and M2 rebounded by 0.5 percentage points to 9.7% compared with the previous value, which is related to the improvement of the derivative ability of loans to deposits; Fiscal deposits decreased year-on-year, pointing to the acceleration of fiscal expenditure. In March, M1 was only flat when the base was down year-on-year, indicating that there was pressure on the current cash flow of enterprises under the condition of sluggish real estate and weak economic demand; However, at the same time, the high growth of bills and short-term loans provided some support for maintaining the short-term liquidity of enterprises, so M1 remained stable. The year-on-year rise of M2 in March is related to the decline of the base (M2 in February 2021 was 10.1% year-on-year and 9.4% in March), which also reflects the derivation of loans from deposits, which can be confirmed by the year-on-year increase in deposits of residents and enterprises. In addition, fiscal deposits decreased by 842.5 billion yuan in March, which is related to the increase of fiscal expenditure at the end of the quarter; At the same time, fiscal deposits decreased by 357.1 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting the increase in fiscal expenditure under the pre fiscal requirements, which also released space for M2.
How to understand the Enlightenment of March financial data to the economy? The growth rate of social finance has stabilized and rebounded, and the proportion of Pro cyclical indicators of credit (resident loans + medium and long-term loans of enterprises) is lower than that from the second half of 2020 to 2021, but the marginal improvement indicates that the economy will improve in the future.
Preliminary report: periodic twists and turns of "wide credit" or the risk of "Balance Sheet Recession" We pointed out that we need to be vigilant against the risk of "Balance Sheet Recession", but at present, this risk is not large. According to the calculation of bis data, the pressure on Chinese enterprises to repay principal and interest has increased, but it is far less than that of Japan since the 1990s. The "February" period is more like the "February" period. The data in March confirmed our judgment that the growth rate of social finance stock stabilized and rebounded again. In March, the social finance credit data generally pointed to the marginal improvement of financial data structure, and the stabilization of wide credit indicates that the economy will improve.
First, the growth rate of social finance stock is about half a year ahead of the actual GDP. Although this leading relationship has weakened after 2013, the two are still changing in the same direction, and the credit stabilization points to the stabilization and recovery of the economy;
Second, the proportion of Pro cyclical indicators of credit (resident loans + medium and long-term loans of enterprises) has improved, indicating that the economy will improve in the future. Since the transmission of credit is often subject to the law of "bills → short-term loans → long-term loans", that is, the transmission of "money → credit" often starts with the implementation of loose monetary policy (such as reducing reserve requirements, interest rates and shouting credit). However, due to the difficulty of raising the financing demand of the short-term real economy significantly, it is manifested in bill impulse in the early stage, or supplement the temporary and short-term cash flow demand of enterprises with bill discount, At this time, enterprises also have more short-term loans; With the increase of financing willingness of the real economy, it is reflected in the recovery of medium and long-term loans of enterprises. Therefore, we define the sum of notes in new credit and short-term loans of enterprises as "counter cyclical variable", which mainly reflects the will of policy to maintain stability; The sum of resident loans and medium and long-term loans of enterprises is defined as a "Pro cyclical variable", which mainly reflects the improvement of consumption, real estate and investment. Historical data show that the procyclical variable has a strong positive correlation with commercial housing sales and manufacturing PMI. The data show that the proportion of procyclical variables in new loans in March is still lower than that from the second half of 2020 to 2021, but improved compared with February; The proportion of counter cyclical variables is on the contrary, that is, higher than that from the second half of 2020 to 2021, but significantly lower than that in February, indicating that the credit data structure in March is lower than that from the second half of 2020 to 2021, but better than that in February. At present, consumption, real estate and enterprise investment are still weak, but if the improvement of credit structure can be sustained, it points to the improvement of the economy in the future.
Will the reserve requirement and interest rate be cut again, and how about the sustainability of subsequent credit easing?
From the perspective of structural disassembly, the slightly improved physical demand is behind the unexpected social finance, but the real situation is still lower than that in the second half of 2020 and 2021. Therefore, the steady growth policy still needs to be accelerated. Among them, finance is more advanced, and the release of special bonds is accelerated; In terms of monetary policy, the structural policy has been put into force, but in view of the rapid narrowing or even upside down of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, China can still reduce the reserve requirement and interest rate, but the time point remains to be seen; The real estate policy may be further broadened.
Risk tips
The downward speed of real estate exceeded expectations, the financing recovery of the real economy was less than expected, and the implementation of policies was less than expected.
