Event: in March, CPI increased by 1.50% year-on-year, the expected value was 1.26%, and the previous value was 0.90%; PPI was 8.30% year-on-year, the expected value was 8.04%, and the previous value was 8.80%.
I. CPI rose by 1.5% year-on-year, higher than the previous value; The year-on-year decline of food CPI narrowed, and the month on month ratio changed from positive to negative. Pork, fresh fruits and aquatic products are the main drag, while fresh vegetables and grain are the main support; Non food prices rose slightly again year-on-year, and the month on month increase decreased slightly compared with the previous month. Energy prices were high and service prices were weak; The core CPI changed from positive to negative month on month, which was flat year on year, and the economic boom was generally weak.
CPI rose year-on-year. Affected by the impact of the epidemic, the fluctuation of international grain prices and the rise of chemical fertilizer prices, CPI of fresh vegetables and grain rose year-on-year; International oil prices and natural gas prices are still high, driving the month on month rise of vehicle fuel again; The economy was under pressure due to the disturbance from outside China, the economic boom decreased compared with the previous month, and the core CPI changed from positive to negative month on month, unchanged from the previous value year on year.
In March, CPI rose by 1.5% year-on-year, higher than the previous value; The month on month increase was 0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food CPI decreased by 1.2% month on month, dragged down by pork, fresh fruits and aquatic products; Non food increased by 0.3% month on month, slightly lower than the previous value, driving the CPI to rise by about 0.25 percentage points, which was less than that in February, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on the service industry. Core CPI was flat year-on-year. Both PMI and BCI indexes decreased compared with the previous month, so the core CPI changed from positive to negative, down 0.1%. Breakdown:
1. Food items: from positive to negative, down 1.2%, of which pork, fresh fruits and aquatic products are the main drag items, and fresh vegetables and grain are the main support.
1) the price of fresh vegetables rose due to the impact of the epidemic and the rise in the price of chemical fertilizer, and the CPI of fresh vegetables increased significantly by 17.2% year-on-year; The month on month increase fell to 0.4% from 6% last month, which is still the main driving factor of CPI month on month, and the month on month increase is significantly higher than the seasonal increase by about 10.8 percentage points; A substantial increase of 17.2% year-on-year, an increase of 17.3 percentage points over the previous month. In March, the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased by 2.33% month on month; In terms of high-frequency indicators, the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables in early April was slightly higher than the average in March.
2) grain prices rose due to the sharp rise in international grain prices and the impact of the epidemic in China. Grain CPI increased by 0.5% month on month, pulling CPI by 0.01% month on month, which was consistent with the pulling effect of fresh vegetables. The month on month increase was slightly higher than the seasonal increase of 0.49 percentage points, up 2% year-on-year. On March 30, the central bank issued the opinions on the key work of financial support for comprehensively promoting rural revitalization in 2022, emphasizing the financial guarantee of food security and increasing financial support for important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supplies such as soybeans and oil; On April 1, vice premier Hu Chunhua stressed at the national teleconference on the promotion of corn and rice production that we should consolidate the good momentum of steady growth in rice production and ensure the stability of market supply. The importance of food security has increased.
3) both fresh fruits and aquatic products changed from positive to negative month on month, and the year-on-year increase decreased. The year-on-year increase of CPI of aquatic products and fresh fruits decreased by 0.7 and 2.3 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month. The month on month increase of fresh fruits was lower than the seasonality, but aquatic products were slightly higher than the seasonality. The fishing ban period has a certain boost to the price of aquatic products.
4) pork CPI continued to decline by 9.3% month on month, 4.7 percentage points lower than the previous month and about 3.6 percentage points lower than the seasonality. It also continued to decline year-on-year, with a decrease of 1.1 percentage points to - 41.4% compared with the previous month. The main reason for the decline of pork is still the sufficient supply. In February, the stock of fertile sows has decreased to 0.5% year-on-year, but the stock of fertile sows is generally 10 months ahead of the change of pork price. From the perspective of the leadership of stock to price, the current pork supply is still high, so the price is still low. On April 1, the national development and Reform Commission, together with relevant parties, carried out the collection and storage of the third batch of central frozen pork reserves during the year. It is planned to collect and store 40000 tons of frozen pork on April 2 and 3, but the boost effect is limited, and the pig grain ratio continues to be lower than 5:1. Therefore, the national development and Reform Commission announced on April 8 that it plans to carry out the collection and storage of the fourth batch of 40000 tons of frozen pork in the year in the near future.
2. Non food items: non food items increased month on month, and the increase was lower than that of the previous month. On the one hand, the international oil price and natural gas price remained high, driving the CPI of vehicle fuel and residential hydropower fuel increased month on month; On the other hand, the epidemic has impacted rent and tourism, and the CPI of service industry is generally slightly lower than that of seasonality.
In March, CPI of non food products increased by 0.3% month on month, 0.44 percentage points higher than the seasonality, 2.2% higher than the same period last month, or 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month. Non food internal rose more and fell less year-on-year, with both rises and falls month on month. Specifically, from the month on month:
1) the sub items significantly lower than the seasonality are rent, western medicine and communication services. Under the impact of the epidemic, the CPI of rent was unchanged, with a month on month ratio of 0%, 0.28 percentage points lower than the seasonality, and 0.55 percentage points lower than the seasonality excluding the impact of the epidemic (the average value of the same period in 20162019). Both western medicine and traditional Chinese medicine increased month on month, but the CPI of Western medicine was 0.2 percentage points lower than the seasonality, which was the main drag of the CPI of medicine and health care being 0.1 percentage points lower than the seasonality. Communication services decreased by 0.1% month on month, 0.06 percentage points lower than the seasonality.
2) affected by the impact of the epidemic, the tourism sub item decreased by 2.6% month on month, but it was 4 percentage points higher than the seasonality excluding the impact of the epidemic.
3) in terms of energy, the international oil price continues to drive up the price of refined oil in China, and the price of natural gas continues to rise; Affected by the rising prices of gasoline and diesel, the CPI of vehicle fuel increased to 7.1% month on month from 6.1% last month, 7.64 percentage points higher than the seasonality; Driven by the rise in commodity prices, residential hydropower fuel CPI rose by 0.7% month on month, up from 0.1% last month and 1 percentage point higher than seasonality.
3. Core CPI: the economic boom decreased compared with the previous month, and the core CPI decreased by 0.1% month on month, unchanged from the previous value of 1.1% year on year. In March, the core CPI changed from positive to negative, down 0.1%, but 0.03 percentage points higher than the seasonality excluding the impact of the epidemic. Affected by the epidemic, the PMI of manufacturing industry, PMI of service industry and BCI index in March fell compared with the previous month, and the economy was under pressure. The overall demand is still weak, and the core CPI in March was flat year-on-year.
