Events: in March 2022, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion, expected to be 2.64 trillion, compared with 2.73 trillion in the same period last year; Social finance increased by 4.65 trillion, expected to be 3.63 trillion, compared with 3.34 trillion in the same period last year; The growth rate of social finance stock was 10.6%, the former value was 10.2%; M2 was 9.7% year-on-year, 9.1% expected, and the previous value was 9.2%; M1 was 4.7% year-on-year, and the previous value was 4.7%.
Core conclusion: credit easing is still on the way, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates should also be on the way, and more attention will be paid to credit expansion and structural easing.
1. On the whole, the financing of credit cooperatives increased higher than expected in March, but the structure is still poor, and the shortage of domestic demand is still a big drag, especially on the real estate side. Fortunately, the demand for infrastructure has begun to improve. In terms of scale, the credit and social finance increased significantly in a single month in March, and Q1 also increased year-on-year as a whole. The growth rate of social finance rose to 10.6% in March, pointing to the positive role of the central bank in stabilizing credit; Structurally, residents' short-term loans increased less year-on-year for five consecutive months, residents' mortgage loans changed from negative to positive, but increased less year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month, the characteristics of enterprise short-term loans and bill impulse continued, medium and long-term loans increased slightly, but still increased less in Q1 as a whole and in the merger from February to March, pointing to weak consumption, no improvement in the real estate boom, and poor actual financing demand of enterprises. It should be noted that combined with Q1 infrastructure loan demand index and construction PMI rebounded in March, pointing to the gradual development of infrastructure.
2. Continue to remind: the end of the policy is now, while the end of the economy and the end of the market will take time. The recent meeting still emphasized "steady growth, stable expectation and prudent introduction of contractive policies", and required "to set the annual development goal and not relax", indicating that about 5.5% is still a hard requirement, and there are two "unique tactics" in the follow-up: first, the existing policies should be implemented as soon as possible, and second, the policies should be "early and quick", mainly "water release, real estate release and infrastructure release", and the most important thing is to avoid the "hard landing" of real estate.
3. Four short-term concerns: 1) the economy "opens high" from January to February and "walks low" with high probability from March to April; 2) The probability of reducing the reserve requirement and interest rate in April is still possible, and it is difficult to "falsify" in the short term. Pay attention to 4.15 (MLF expiration) and 4.20 (LPR quotation); 3) Real estate may be further relaxed, including the demand side (residents) and the supply side (real estate enterprises), especially the relaxation of the core first and second lines, the relaxation of the three red lines, the real estate rescue mechanism, the real estate symposium, etc; 4) The Fed's pace of raising interest rates and shrinking the table.
4. Specifically, the main features of credit social finance in March are as follows:
1) the new loans were much higher than expected, but the structural deterioration characteristics remained unchanged: the short-term loans of residents increased less year-on-year for five consecutive months, and the pointing consumption was still weak. The residential mortgage loans changed from negative to positive, but increased less year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month, indicating that the real estate boom did not improve under the relaxed support; The increase in financing demand of enterprises in February and March is still more favorable than that of enterprises in the medium and short term, but the increase in financing demand of enterprises in February and March still points to the short-term offset.
In terms of total amount, the new credit added in March was 3.13 trillion, an increase of 395.1 billion year-on-year, much higher than the market expected 2.64 trillion, and significantly higher than the 2.42 trillion in the same period in recent three years. Among them, resident loans increased by 753.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 394 billion, and a year-on-year decrease for five consecutive months; Corporate loans increased by 248 billion yuan, an increase of 880 billion yuan year-on-year, the largest increase since April 2020; Non bank institutional loans decreased by 45.4 billion year-on-year, an increase of 18.4 billion year-on-year.
Residents' short-term loans continued to be weak, pointing to poor consumption; Mortgage loans became positive, but the year-on-year growth characteristics continued, pointing to the need for further relaxation of real estate regulation. In March, residents' short-term loans increased by 384.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 139.4 billion, and a year-on-year decrease in May, reflecting the weakness of residents' consumption; The new scale of residents' medium and long-term loans changed from negative to positive to 373.5 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 250.4 billion. It has increased less year-on-year in April, pointing to that the relaxation of real estate regulation is still insufficient.
Medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased slightly, but there was still little increase in Q1 as a whole and in the merger from February to March, and the impulse characteristics of short-term loans and bills continued. In March, medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 1344.8 billion, a slight increase of 14.8 billion year-on-year, which is also higher than the seasonality (the average value of the same period in recent three years was 98 million). However, from January to March, medium and long-term loans of enterprises totaled 3950 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 520 billion, and from February to March, medium and long-term loans of enterprises totaled 1850 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 580 billion, indicating that the current medium and long-term loans are still weak; Enterprise short-term loans increased by 808.9 billion, an increase of 434.1 billion year-on-year, which is likely to be impulse; Bill financing increased by 318.7 billion, significantly higher than the seasonality (50.9 billion in the same period in recent three years), an increase of 471.2 billion year-on-year, and the impulse characteristics continued.
It should be noted that compared with real estate, the demand for infrastructure financing should have begun to improve. According to the results of the central bank's Q1 questionnaire, the Q1 loan demand index was 72.3%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points over the end of 2021. Among them, the infrastructure loan demand index increased significantly by 6.5 percentage points to 67.3% compared with the end of 2021. Combined with the obvious rebound of the PMI of the construction industry in March, it points to the current background of steady growth. Compared with the continued weakness of real estate, infrastructure is expected to take the lead in achieving results.
2) the new social finance was significantly higher than expected, and credit and government bonds were the main contributions; The growth rate of social finance stock rose again to 10.6%. Looking back, under the combined fist of "wide currency + loose real estate + expansion of infrastructure", the growth rate of social finance is expected to rise steadily.
In terms of total amount, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan in March, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 3.63 trillion yuan; In March, the growth rate of social finance stock was 10.6%, rising again after a slight decline last month.
In terms of structure, the new RMB loans of social finance in March were 3.23 trillion, an increase of 481.7 billion year-on-year, which was the main driving item of social finance in March; Government bond financing increased by 705.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 392.1 billion, mainly related to the accelerated issuance of special bonds (420.5 billion in March, only 26.4 billion in the same period in 2021); Corporate bond financing increased by 389.4 billion, an increase of 8.7 billion year-on-year; Off balance sheet financing increased by 13.3 billion, the first positive increase in nearly a year, an increase of 426.2 billion year-on-year, the highest in nearly a year. The large impulse of bills is the main contribution.
3) M1 was flat last month, M2 rose again, m2-m1 scissors spread continued to widen, and weak real estate sales were still the main reason
In March, M1 was 4.7% year-on-year, the same as that of the previous month. The acceleration of infrastructure investment may form a hedge against the weakness of real estate sales (on March 30, the transaction area of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities was 9.7 million square meters, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 47.33%); The year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 9.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the trend was consistent with the growth rate of social finance. On the deposit side, 4.49 trillion yuan of deposits were added in March, an increase of 860 billion year-on-year, including 842.5 billion less fiscal deposits and 357.1 billion more year-on-year, pointing to the continued acceleration of the release of fiscal deposits. In addition, the m2-m1 scissors gap widened, and weak real estate sales should be the main drag.
Risk warning: unexpected changes in epidemic situation, policy strength, external environment, etc
