The new credit exceeded expectations and the credit demand of enterprises expanded. In March, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 400 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. Corporate loans increased by 448.9 billion yuan year-on-year, becoming the biggest bright spot. The strong demand for short-term loans from enterprises is mainly related to the centralized commencement of infrastructure projects and the response of financial institutions to rescue policies. The growth of medium and long-term loans of enterprises under the pressure of high base is largely due to the enhanced leveraging effect of special bonds on supporting funds. In other sub items, residents' credit demand is still relatively low, short-term loans are subject to the epidemic, residents' consumption is blocked, and medium and long-term loans are still dragged down by housing loans. Bill financing increased by 471.2 billion yuan year-on-year, becoming the largest support item, reflecting that the current credit structure still needs to be optimized, and banks use bill impulse to fill the credit scale.
The issuance of government bonds and non-standard drag eased, and social finance increased significantly. In March, the scale of social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year, greatly exceeding market expectations. Structurally, it shows the significant characteristics of credit expansion, government debt issuance and mitigation of non-standard drag. The stock of social finance was 10.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, and the growth rate reached a new high since August 2021. At the national standing committee meeting at the end of March, the premier made the latest deployment for the special bonds, approved the amount in advance, and completed the issuance before the end of May and September. According to this rhythm, the power window of government bonds is concentrated in the first half of the year, and then the pulling effect on social finance tends to weaken. In the second half of the year, it will face the pressure of high base after issuance in 2021.
The household savings rate rose and fiscal expenditure increased. According to the central bank questionnaire, in the first quarter, more savings of urban depositors accounted for 54.7%, 5.6 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year. In March, the growth rate of M2 was 9.7%, with a marginal increase of 0.5 percentage points, which confirmed the improvement of residents' savings rate. The growth rate of M1 was 4.7%, which was the same as that of the previous month. The scissors gap of m2-m1 growth rate expanded, which showed that under the impact of the epidemic, residents' consumption activities were limited, investment sentiment was cooled, and capital activity was weak. From the deposit side, fiscal deposits decreased by 357.1 billion yuan year-on-year, and expenditure increased significantly.
Why are we firmly optimistic about broad credit? First, according to our credit cycle index, the first three quarters of this year will be in a period of credit expansion. The data of the central bank's credit cycle will continue to improve in August of this year, which is about the third round of the central bank's credit cycle in 2021. Second, credit easing is the main driving force of current monetary policy. Examine the possible choices of the central bank on monetary policy tools, and face the practical constraints of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase and exchange rate depreciation; The RRR reduction can be expected, but if the RRR is reduced, it will be accompanied by the net withdrawal of MLF; Combined with the clear statement of "expanding the scale of new loans" on the policy side, credit easing is the main driving force of current monetary policy. Third, the growth peak of social finance is expected to appear in the third quarter, reaching 11.2%. The annual growth rate is expected to be 11%, with a corresponding new social finance of about 35 trillion, slightly higher than the growth rate of nominal GDP, but basically matched.
Risk factors: the epidemic situation worsened again, and the policy promotion was not as expected
