Social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan in March, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan over the same period last year and 3.45 trillion yuan over February, higher than market expectations. In March, the stock of social finance increased by 10.6% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points higher than that in February, and returned to the upward trend.
Credit extension and government debt financing promoted the growth of the total amount of social finance. In March, RMB loans increased by 3.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 481.7 billion yuan year-on-year and 2.32 trillion yuan month on month, higher than market expectations. Among various categories of social finance, on balance sheet financing increased by 477.4 billion yuan over the same period last year, off balance sheet financing increased by 426.2 billion yuan over the same period last year, and direct financing increased by 26.2 billion yuan over the same period last year; In terms of details, government bonds increased by 392.1 billion yuan year-on-year and bills increased by 258.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Together with RMB loans, it promoted the growth of total social finance. The main driving factor is still the sharp acceleration of infrastructure investment under the counter cyclical regulation of fiscal policy.
The proportion of RMB loans continued to increase. In terms of the stock structure of social finance, compared with February, the proportion of RMB loans in March 2022 increased by 0.14%, the proportion of corporate bond financing decreased by 0.04%, and the proportion of government bonds decreased by 0.02%; Compared with the same period last year, the proportion of government bonds and RMB loans still increased significantly, and the proportion of stocks increased slightly.
The M2 growth rate was higher than expected, and the m2-m1 scissors difference widened. In March, M2 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from February; M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year, unchanged in February; M0 increased by 9.9% year-on-year, up 4.1 percentage points from February. In March, unit demand deposits increased by 3.86% year-on-year, down 0.69 percentage points from February, and quasi currency increased by 11.58% year-on-year, up 0.78 percentage points from February. The higher than expected growth rate of M2 in March was mainly due to the reduction of fiscal deposits under the advance force of fiscal policy, the superposition of the year-on-year increase of resident deposits and enterprise deposits, and the enhancement of the ability of derivative deposits. The m2-m1 scissors gap has widened, which still shows the trend of low investment willingness and declining capital activation of enterprises.
The total amount of credit exceeded expectations and the structure is still weak. In March, new loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 400 billion yuan over the same period last year, including short-term loans and bills increased by 1.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 765.9 billion yuan over the same period last year, medium and long-term loans increased by 1.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 471.2 billion yuan over the same period last year. In March, the total amount of loan data warmed up and the structure was still weak: the medium and long-term loans of residents resumed positive growth, but still showed a small increase year-on-year. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic in March, the short-term loans and medium and long-term loans of residents were relatively weak. In the follow-up, we still need to focus on the real estate sales; Medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 14.8 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating that the medium and long-term financing demand of the real economy is still weak. However, considering that it is still in the medium-term stage of wide credit, it is expected that the financial data will still maintain the characteristics of rising total amount and poor structure in the short term.
The deposits of enterprises and residents increased, and the willingness to invest and consume was weak. In March, deposits increased by 4.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 860 billion yuan over the same period last year, of which residents' deposits increased by 2.70 trillion yuan, an increase of 762.3 billion yuan over the same period last year, and enterprise deposits increased by 2.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 922.1 billion yuan over the same period last year. Compared with the same period last year, resident deposits and enterprise deposits increased significantly, which corresponds to the higher than expected growth rate of M2. It also shows that at present, affected by the epidemic and other factors, enterprise investment and residents' willingness to consume are not strong.
Overall, although the total data exceeded expectations, the structural data still had obvious shortcomings, and the market could not reach a broad credit consensus. In view of the "timely and flexible use of various monetary policy tools such as refinancing" mentioned at the national standing committee meeting on April 6, combined with the interference of factors such as the current uncertain epidemic situation, we believe that monetary easing still has some imagination space.
Risk warning: credit supply exceeds expectations; Tight liquidity environment; The impact of covid-19 epidemic in China has expanded.
