The scale of social financing increased by 27.4 trillion yuan over the same period last year. New RMB loans reached 3.13 trillion yuan, with an expected 2.8 trillion yuan, up from 1.23 trillion yuan. M2 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, expected to be 9.1%, and the previous value was 9.2%.
In January and March, social finance greatly exceeded expectations, but the financing demand of the real economy is still weak. In March, the growth rate of stock social finance was 10.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month. The new scale of social financing was 4.65 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 1.27 trillion yuan over the same period last year. It mainly depends on the financing needs of government bonds and state-owned enterprises. However, due to the release of real estate risks, banks have a low risk preference for private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises. Structurally, government bonds and off balance sheet financing have made significant efforts, and credit has been repaired. Off balance sheet financing recovered. In March, off balance sheet financing increased by 13.3 billion yuan, an increase of 426.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, new undiscounted bills increased by 28.6 billion yuan, a significant increase of 258.2 billion yuan year-on-year, new trust loans decreased by 25.9 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 153.2 billion yuan year-on-year, and entrusted loans increased by 10.6 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8 billion yuan year-on-year.
Government bond financing increased significantly. In March, the net financing of government bonds was 705.2 billion yuan, an increase of 392.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Since the first quarter, a total of 1.3 trillion yuan of new special bonds have been issued, accounting for 89% of the amount approved in advance of 1.46 trillion yuan, higher than 82% and 83% in the same period in 2019 and 2020. Corporate bond and stock financing increased slightly year-on-year. In March, the net financing of corporate bonds was 389.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7 billion yuan year-on-year. Infrastructure development has driven relevant supporting financing of enterprises, and the margin of real estate bond financing has warmed up. In March, the new stock financing was 98.5 billion yuan, an increase of 17.5 billion yuan year-on-year.
2. The credit growth rate stopped falling after five consecutive months of decline, and the structure is still poor. The credit growth rate of financial institutions was 11.4%, the same as that of last month. Financial institutions increased RMB loans by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 400 billion yuan year-on-year.
In terms of enterprise loans, short-term loans and bills increased significantly, and medium and long-term loans increased slightly. In March, new enterprise loans increased by 2.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 880 billion yuan year-on-year. Short term loans, medium and long-term loans and bill financing increased by 434.1 billion yuan, 14.8 billion yuan and 471.2 billion yuan respectively year-on-year. In terms of resident loans, short-term, medium and long-term loans increased less. In March, the new resident loan was 753.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 394 billion yuan. Among them, short-term loans decreased by 139.4 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans decreased by 250.4 billion yuan. Although the restrictions on the sale of real estate in many places have been liberalized, it will take time for the real estate sales market to recover due to the epidemic and market sentiment.
3. M2 rebounded, M1 was flat, and the scissors difference between M2 and M1 expanded. M2 grew by 9.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and M1 grew by 4.7%, unchanged from the previous month. Deposits have shifted from finance to enterprises and residents. Corporate deposits and resident deposits increased by 922.1 billion yuan and 762.3 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, and new fiscal deposits decreased by 357.1 billion yuan year-on-year. In March, the month of fiscal expenditure, the transformation of fiscal deposits to residents’ and enterprises’ deposits was accelerated. The deposits of non bank financial institutions decreased by 304 billion yuan year-on-year. Affected by market fluctuations, funds and financial products suffered a wave of redemption.
4. Investment suggestions: pay attention to the bank valuation repair market and bank stocks with high asset quality. The main basis is: 1) liability side: under the expectation of steady growth, the monetary policy remains loose and the cost of bank liabilities is reduced. 2) Asset side: with the adjustment of multi land real estate policy, real estate is expected to gradually stabilize and reduce the bad debt risk of bank asset side. 3) At present, the overall banking industry is 0.62 × PB/6.1 × PE is at a historical low valuation. Focus on leading banks with high fundamental quality, such as China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) ; Urban commercial firms with excellent asset quality, such as Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) .
Risk tip: the policy strength is less than expected, so it is difficult to hedge the economic downturn.
