In March, social finance increased by 4650 billion yuan, significantly higher than the 3630 billion yuan expected by the market, an increase of 1273.8 billion yuan year-on-year; The stock of social finance increased by 10.6% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; The newly increased RMB loans were 3256.7 billion yuan, much higher than the 2640 billion yuan expected by the market.
The total amount is much higher than expected. The social finance increment in March was much higher than expected. The cumulative value of social finance increment in the first quarter also increased by 1.73 trillion yuan compared with the first quarter of 2021. The growth rate of social finance stock increased by 0.4 percentage points to 10.6% compared with the previous month. The reason is that short-term loan impulse and financial force are important factors. Structurally, the leverage of the government and enterprises is greater than that of residents. Specifically, short-term loans are better than long-term loans, corporate loans are better than residential loans, and government bonds are significantly stronger. The social finance structure needs to be improved.
The short end is better than the long end. In March, enterprise short-term loans increased by 434.1 billion yuan year-on-year, and bill financing increased by 471.2 billion yuan year-on-year; Medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 14.8 billion yuan year-on-year. It shows that the bank credit line is sufficient, but the entity financing demand is weak. At the end of the quarter, banks rushed to complete regulatory indicators, resulting in vigorous short-term financing of enterprises. In the first and middle of March, the bank offset bills obviously, but the bill interest rate rose in the second half of March, and the phenomenon of offset bills eased, which may mean that the marginal demand for credit has improved.
The enterprise end is better than the resident end. In March, residents' short-term loans decreased by 139.4 billion yuan year-on-year, and residents' medium and long-term loans decreased by 250.4 billion yuan year-on-year; The sharp decrease in residential loans is verified by the real estate sales data in March. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities is significantly lower than the seasonality, and completely deviates from the seasonal trend. In early April, real estate sales were still declining, or continued to drag down resident loans in April.
The financial force is obvious. From the perspective of government bond financing, the government bond financing increased by 392.1 billion yuan year-on-year in March, with a total increase of 921.5 billion yuan in the first quarter, which is the main factor affecting the higher than expected growth of social finance. In the context of steady growth and fiscal advance, the issuance of government special bonds accelerated significantly in the first quarter, which is expected to be an important support for the subsequent recovery of infrastructure. It is noteworthy that fiscal deposits decreased by 842.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 357.1 billion yuan, and fiscal expenditure accelerated, which is also an important evidence of fiscal strength.
On the whole, although the total amount of social financing in March was much higher than expected, the structure was poor and needed to be improved, and the demand for physical financing was still weak. After the data release, the 10-year Treasury bond yield immediately rose by 1.25bp, but fell rapidly. On the one hand, the data of China and the United States are still highly sensitive to the domestic market. On the other hand, it shows that the current interest rate difference between the two markets is still weak.
In the short term, there are certain variables in geopolitics, the trend of China's epidemic, the implementation of stable growth policy and the upward range of US debt. It is suggested to follow up and wait-and-see and respond flexibly. The undervalued value is still relatively dominant, but the structural differentiation may enter the middle and late stage. The Treasury bond yield center may remain low in the current range, and it may take some time for the market to repair economic expectations.
Risk warning: the epidemic development exceeded expectations; Overseas economic recovery is less than expected
