The data disclosed by the Federation of passenger cars in March: in March, the output of narrow passenger cars (cars / SUVs / MPVS) in China was – 0.3% / month on month + 22.0% to 1.823 million (1q22 output + 11.0% to 5.361 million), the wholesale sales were – 1.6% / month on month + 23.6% to 1.814 million (1q22 wholesale sales were + 8.3% to 5.439 million), and the retail sales were – 10.5% / month on month + 25.6% to 1.579 million (1q22 retail sales were – 4.5% to 4.915 million). We judged that 1) the epidemic caused the retail sales performance in March to be lower than expected; 2) The epidemic control in Shanghai and other surrounding areas intensifies the risk of supply chain and production delivery, and the pressure is expected to remain in April.
In March, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 28%, showing strong performance: in mid March, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger vehicles increased from + 124.2% year-on-year to + 24.9% month on month to 437000, and the wholesale sales increased from + 122.4% year-on-year to + 43.6% month on month to 455000 (the wholesale penetration rate increased from + 14.1pcts / month on month + 3.3pcts to 25.1%, and the wholesale penetration rate of 1q22 increased from + 12.2pcts to 21.9%), Retail sales volume increased by 137.6% year on year / 63.1% month on month to 445000 vehicles (retail penetration rate increased by 17.7pcts year on year / 6.4pcts month on month to 28.2%, 1q22 retail penetration rate increased by 13.4pcts year on year to 21.8%). We judged that the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was strong in March. The price adjustment led to the conversion of retained orders corresponding to the advance demand of some users and the corresponding expansion of the rights and interests of some vehicle enterprises; Among them, 1) the wholesale / retail penetration rate of independent brands increased from + 3.0pcts / + 4.1pcts to 41.0% / 46.0% month on month; 2) Tesla‘s retail increment accounts for 9.7%, which is expected to drive retail penetration of nearly 2.7pcts.
Optimistic about the sales prospects of high-end pure electric and plug-in hybrid market segments: from the perspective of the split of wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in March, 1) the penetration rate of independent brands is about 41.0% (vs. luxury brands / mainstream joint venture brands are about 34% / 3% respectively). 2) The proportion of pure electric vehicles increased from + 4.5pcts to 81.5% month on month, reaching 371000 vehicles (year-on-year + 116.8% / month on month + 51.4%); Among them, A00 and class B pure electric account for about 32% / 30% respectively (vs. class a pure electric accounts for about 22%). 3) The proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles increased from – 4.5pcts to 18.5% month on month, reaching 84000 vehicles (year-on-year + 151.3% / month on month + 16.7%); Among them, the sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) plug-in hybrid vehicles is about 51000 (accounting for nearly 61%).
Investment suggestions: we judge that 1) the epidemic situation in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai has a great impact on the supply chain and the mass production and delivery of vehicle enterprises. It is expected that the sales volume in April mainly depends on the degree of epidemic control and supply chain / logistics. 2) We are optimistic about the prospects for the release of demand and sales of 2022e (especially 2h22e) new energy vehicles. It is expected that auto enterprises are still expected to hedge policy fluctuations and rising cost pressure by means of price adjustment and comprehensive equity adjustment, so as to drive the steady release of new orders; Among them, high-end pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid may be market segments with strong certainty of sales growth. We expect the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars to be 5-5.5 million in 2022e; In the passenger car sector, traditional car companies recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) , new forces recommend Tesla, and pay attention to the ideal for a long time.
Risk analysis: the reduction of chip shortage is less than expected; Replenishment is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The launch and climbing of new models are less than expected; The cost control is less than expected, the profit drops, the epidemic situation repeats, and the market risk.
