Event: on April 11, the central bank released social finance and financial data for the first quarter. At the end of March, the stock of social finance was 325.64 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 10.6% (the growth rate increased by 0.4pct month on month). In March, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion, 1.29 trillion more than the same period last year. At the end of March, M2 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.5pct month on month; M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that of the previous month. Our comments are as follows:
The growth rate of stock social finance picked up month on month, and social finance and credit increased year-on-year in March. At the end of March, the stock of social finance increased by 10.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded month on month. In March, social finance increased by 4.65 trillion, an increase of 1.29 trillion year-on-year, mainly from credit, government bonds and corporate bonds. Among them, RMB loans increased by 3.23 trillion, an increase of 479.8 billion year-on-year. Government bonds increased by 705.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 392.2 billion, maintaining rapid issuance. Corporate bonds increased by 392.4 billion, an increase of 36.7 billion year-on-year. In terms of off balance sheet financing, entrusted loans increased by 10.6 billion, trust loans decreased by 25.9 billion, and undiscounted silver notes increased by 28.8 billion.
The growth of medium and long-term loans is weak, and the policies of steady growth and marginal easing of real estate need to be continuously strengthened. At the end of March, the balance of RMB loans increased by 11.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was flat month on month. In March, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion, an increase of 400 billion year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of enterprise loans, especially short-term loans and bill financing.
(1) enterprise loans: the recovery of medium and long-term loans is slow, and the follow-up policy remains to be developed. More than 880.3 trillion yuan of loans and short-term notes from enterprises increased year-on-year. Among them, short-term loans to enterprises increased by 808.9 billion, an increase of 434.1 billion year-on-year; New bill financing was 318.7 billion, an increase of 471.2 billion year-on-year. The medium and long-term loans are still weak. In March, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 1.35 trillion, an increase of only 14.8 billion year-on-year, reflecting the current weak demand for real credit. Due to the recent epidemic situation in various places and the tightening of epidemic prevention policies, the normal commencement of enterprises and the progress of infrastructure projects are affected, and the growth of supporting loans is weak. In the context of insufficient credit demand, banks are more replenished through bill financing and short-term loans. It is expected that the follow-up policies of steady growth of infrastructure and marginal easing of real estate need to be continuously strengthened.
(2) resident Loans: the short-term, medium-term and long-term increase is less than that of the same period last year, reflecting the weak demand of residents for house purchase and consumption. In March, resident loans increased by 753.9 billion; Among them, residents’ short-term loans increased by 384.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 394 billion; Residents’ medium – and long-term loans increased by 373.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 250.4 billion. It reflects that the demand for house purchase and mortgage loans of residents remained weak in March. Since the beginning of the year, the real estate demand side policies in some areas have been relaxed, including reducing the down payment ratio, housing loan interest rate and increasing the maximum amount of provident fund loans, which has a certain boost to the demand for real estate sales and residents’ mortgage loans. However, due to the repeated epidemic, residents have great uncertainty about the prospect of economic growth and income expectation, which inhibits the demand for house purchase; The subsequent recovery of residents’ mortgage demand remains to be seen.
The growth rate of M2 improved month on month, and the deposits of residents and enterprises increased year on year. At the end of March, M2 increased by 9.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.4pct month on month. M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was flat month on month. In March, household deposits increased by 2.7 trillion, an increase of 762.3 billion year-on-year. Corporate deposits increased by 2.65 trillion, an increase of 922.1 billion year-on-year. Fiscal deposits decreased by 842.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 357.1 billion, reflecting the slow progress of infrastructure projects and fiscal expenditure. The deposits of non banking financial institutions decreased by 632 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 304 billion.
Investment suggestion: the social finance data in March reflects that the real demand is still weak. It is expected that under the background of higher economic growth target this year, the follow-up policies of steady growth and marginal easing of real estate need to be continuously strengthened. From the perspective of industry fundamentals, the performance of the banking sector is uncertain. At present, there is little potential adverse pressure. The accelerated transformation of financial management business will contribute to new profit growth points. From the perspective of capital, the proportion of institutional heavy positions held in the sector is at a historically low level, and there is little room for further reduction. The current sector is only 0.62 times the static Pb valuation, at an all-time low. We believe that the steady growth policy needs to be continuously strengthened, and the valuation repair market of the banking sector is worth looking forward to. It is recommended to select banks with customer base, sales channels and first mover advantages in product service system in the field of wealth management ( China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ), high-quality small and medium-sized banks with regional advantages and market-oriented system and mechanism ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , etc.).
Risk tip: the economy stalled and went down, and the real estate regulation policies and regulatory policies changed unexpectedly.
