Event: the people's Bank of China disclosed the financial data of March 2022. In March, the new credit increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 395.1 billion yuan year-on-year; Social finance increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.28 trillion yuan year-on-year, better than market expectations. Our comments are as follows:
\u3000\u30001. Residents' credit demand picked up slightly, but it is still weaker than seasonality. The previously disclosed medium and long-term credit of new residents in February was only - 45.9 billion yuan. At that time, the market was generally worried about the rapid decline of mortgage demand. According to the data in March, the medium and long-term credit of new residents reached 373.5 billion yuan, which recovered significantly month on month. It is expected to be affected by the following factors:
① in March, the number of cities with relaxed real estate policies increased significantly, superimposed with the decline of mortgage loan interest rate, and the transaction situation of the real estate market in some cities improved month on month, mainly in the first and second tier cities. The average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities in China increased by 19.8% month on month in March, driving the slight repair of residents' medium and long-term credit;
② large state-owned banks and regional banks continue to increase the investment of inclusive small and micro credit this year. In March, individual industrial and commercial households and small and micro owners also resumed work one after another, and the corresponding financing demand recovered slightly. From the data of previous years, the Spring Festival month is the off-season of small and micro credit demand, while the corresponding demand will recover significantly in the months after the Spring Festival. It is expected that the bank will increase the investment of medium and long-term operating loans for residents in March this year.
However, year-on-year, the growth of resident credit in March was still weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 250.4 billion yuan, weaker than seasonality for three consecutive months. Since November last year, cities have relaxed their real estate policies due to urban policies. The year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales is still at a record low. It is expected that this round of real estate relaxation is mainly due to the third and fourth tier cities. Most of these regions are net outflow of population, and the ability and willingness of residents to increase leverage are relatively weak; The real estate policy of the first and second tier cities with net population inflow has not been relaxed on a large scale and substantially, and the residents in these regions have relatively stronger willingness and ability to buy houses.
Looking forward to the future, the signs of weak residents' credit demand still need to be changed. On the one hand, the recent epidemic situation has continued to repeat, especially in Shanghai. The severe and complex epidemic situation has affected the consumption habits and willingness of most residents. The growth of residents' short-term loans needs to wait for the epidemic to subside. On the other hand, the real estate policy needs to be more relaxed to further stimulate the growth of residents' medium and long-term credit.
\u3000\u30002. Corporate short-term loans and bill financing have increased significantly, which has become the core factor supporting the improvement of credit. The financing situation of enterprises in March was good, including:
① the medium and long-term loans of enterprises are basically the same year-on-year. According to our grassroots research, the bank's corporate credit reserves are relatively stable and concentrated in strategic emerging industries, manufacturing and infrastructure, and the investment of large state-owned banks and regional banks is the best.
② after the special meeting of the financial supervision committee, the bank should increase the loan scale by 9.3 billion yuan, and it is expected to maintain a year-on-year increase in short-term loans and short-term notes. ② after the special meeting of the financial supervision committee, the bank should take the initiative to increase the loan scale by 9.3 billion yuan.
\u3000\u30003. The growth rate of social finance rebounded to 10.6%, highlighting the intention of supervision to protect credit. In addition to the improvement of credit, new off balance sheet financing and new government bonds increased by 426.3 billion yuan and 394.4 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, jointly supporting the increase of 1.28 trillion yuan in new social finance in March. Specifically: ① the transition period of the new regulations on asset management ended at the end of last year, and the rectification pressure of off balance sheet business tends to be gentle this year. It is expected that the new off balance sheet financing will improve year-on-year. ② This year, the issuance of local government special bonds is ahead of the pace. The national standing committee meeting held on April 6 required that "the amount issued in advance last year shall be completed by the end of May, and the amount issued this year shall be completed by the end of September". It is expected that the follow-up government bonds will still be an important supporting factor for the growth of social finance.
After the growth rate of social finance stock fell to 10.2% at the end of February, the market was worried about the rhythm and intensity of subsequent credit expansion. The growth rate of social finance stock increased by 0.4pc to 10.6% month on month in March, highlighting the intention of regulators to stabilize market expectations.
\u3000\u30004. On the whole, the financial data in March was better than the market expectation. Although the current demand for the real economy is still weak, the regulators' intention to stabilize credit and expectations has increased significantly. Steady growth is still the main line of the market, and the allocation of bank stocks is a very high choice.
① at present, the focus is on the performance of the first quarter report, and regional banks with fast credit supply and some large state-owned banks with growth can be selected;
② from the perspective of steady growth, since the beginning of the year, the number of banks benefiting from the growth of infrastructure credit has increased significantly; The follow-up real estate policy is further relaxed. It is expected that the valuation of banks dragged down by real estate risk exposure on stock prices in the early stage is expected to rise.
. Medium term (if the real estate policy is further greatly relaxed), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) .
Risk tip: the steady growth policy is less than expected, and the risk exposure of the real estate industry is accelerated
