Key investment points
Wholesale sales volume in March + 25% month on month
In March, the wholesale sales volume of generalized passenger vehicles was 1.859 million, with a month-on-month ratio of – 0.8% / + 25.4%. Although restricted by the disturbance of the epidemic situation in some regions, it showed strong performance due to the demand for replenishment and the booming sales of new energy vehicles. In March, the retail sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 1.579 million, with the same / month on month growth rate of – 10.5% / 25.6% respectively. The epidemic affected the entry and delivery of dealers and the efficiency of logistics operation, and the retail sales volume was slightly lower than expected.
In March, the retail penetration rate of new energy exceeded 28%
In March, 455000 new energy passenger vehicles were wholesale, with a year-on-year increase of 122.4%, a month on month increase of 43.6%, and the wholesale penetration rate reached 24.5%, a record high. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of BEV was 371000, with a year-on-year increase of 116.8%; The sales volume of PHEV was 84000, with a year-on-year increase of 151.3%. In March, 445000 new energy vehicles were retailed, with a year-on-year increase of 137.6% and a month on month increase of 63.1%. The retail penetration rate reached a record high of 28.2%. On the one hand, there was a buffer period for the price rise of new energy vehicles in March, which drove the consumption ahead to a certain extent. On the other hand, the new energy vehicle enterprises had sufficient orders in hand before the price rise. At the same time, the epidemic in Shanghai did not spread widely in March, and the epidemic in Shenzhen was dynamically cleared in mid and late March. Therefore, the consumption of new energy vehicles in March was not affected much, Continue the ultra-high boom. In terms of car enterprises, there were 13 new energy wholesale sales exceeding 10000 in March, Byd Company Limited(002594) 104338 vehicles (mom + 19.3%), Tesla China 65814 vehicles (mom + 16.5%), SAIC GM Wuling 51157 vehicles (mom + 96.4%), Chery 21817 vehicles (mom + 112.4%), GAC EA 20317 vehicles (mom + 138.3%), Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) 15624 vehicles, Xiaopeng 15414 vehicles (mom + 148%), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 15057 vehicles, There were 14166 Geely cars (- 0.8% MoM), 12026 Nezha cars (+ 69% MoM), 11034 ideal cars (+ 31% MoM), 10880 SAIC passenger cars and 10059 zero running cars (+ 193% MoM). Among the joint venture vehicle enterprises, the new energy vehicles of North South Volkswagen wholesale 12709 in March (mom + 6.7%), accounting for 63% of the share of mainstream joint ventures (mom increased by 5pct).
The independent share has reached a new high and showed differentiation
In March, the retail sales volume of luxury cars was 230000, a year-on-year decrease of 14% and a month on month increase of 43%; The retail sales volume of mainstream joint venture brands was 590000, with a year-on-year decrease of 30% and a month on month increase of 9%, of which the share of Japanese brands was 20% (23.1% in February), with a month on month decrease of 3 / 3PCT, the share of German brands was 18% (20.5% in February), with a month on month decrease of 7 / 2.5pct, and the share of American brands was 10% (9.1% in February), with a month on month decrease of – 0.5 / + 0.9pct. The retail sales volume of independent brands was 750000, with a year-on-year increase of 17%, a month on month increase of 37%, and the market share was 48.2% (44% in February). Independent brands were differentiated. The sales volume of passenger cars of Byd Company Limited(002594) consecutive two months exceeded that of great wall and Geely, second only to that of Chang’an. Second tier new power car enterprises continued to make efforts to obtain significant share increment in the new energy market.
Investment strategy
Since March, there has been a large-scale recurrence of the epidemic in many places in China. Production, consumption and logistics in Shanghai, Jilin Province and Jiangsu and Zhejiang have been impacted to varying degrees, exceeding expectations. The epidemic has an impact on the current demand and supply of the automobile industry. It is expected that the production and sales of the industry will be under pressure in April. Under the triple influence of the epidemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and raw materials, it is expected that the 22q2 automobile sector will be under pressure. After May, with the dynamic clearing of the epidemic, enterprises will resume normal operation, the overseas situation will gradually become clear, the cost pressure will slow down, the industry fundamentals will return to the upward channel, the rhythm and opportunities will move backward, but the upward trend will not change, Domestic rise and electric intelligence will still be the most certain investment opportunities in the next decade. Recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , and focus on ideal car, Xiaopeng car and Weilai car; Most of the parts and components are most likely to be focused on driving intelligence ( Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) 2 etc.) and localization of passenger car seats ( Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) etc.).
Passenger cars: the independent rise in 2022 will continue to be deduced, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has improved with the supply of more models; 2) Usher in the first year of hybrid independently and challenge the 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 fuel vehicle market; 3) With the acceleration of intelligence, the independent advantage is more obvious. We believe that the market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase this year. Highlight [ Byd Company Limited(002594) ], [Geely Automobile (H)], [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ]; It is suggested to pay attention to Xiao Peng, ideal and Wei Lai.
Parts and components of the ”s Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) (Tesla industrial chain), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) (testing), etc., focusing on Foryou Corporation(002906) (HUD), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension) Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemics, conflict between Russia and Ukraine, lower than expected chip supply, lower than expected car sales, and sharp rise in raw material prices.
