Since March, the epidemic has erupted in Guangdong, Jilin, Shanghai and other places. Considering the large economic volume of the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, and the outbreak areas are large automobile production and marketing regions, we believe that its impact on the production and consumption of the automobile industry may far exceed that of 2020q1.
Impact on production: 1) the output of Guangdong, Jilin and Shanghai ranks among the top three in China, accounting for 33.3% in total. 2) the interruption of the industrial chain amplifies the impact of the epidemic on the production in the Yangtze River Delta. The automobile output in the Yangtze River delta accounts for 21.6% and the added value of the automobile industry accounts for 31.2%. 3) Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the middle Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile loading volume accounts for more than 50%, Its limited production will have a significant impact on the production of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) complete vehicles.
Impact on consumption: 1) the epidemic suppresses short-term demand: car sales in Guangdong and the Yangtze River Delta account for more than 30%. The outbreak makes the year-on-year growth rate of passenger car retail in the first five weeks of March of the passenger Federation - 12.8%, + 2.6%, - 29.3%, - 28.9%, - 5.3% respectively, slowing down significantly; 2) The impact after the epidemic control needs to be observed: after the recovery of 2020q1 epidemic, the losses in the first half of the year were quickly made up in the second half of the year. However, this round of epidemic covers a wide range and is centered in the areas with the strongest economic vitality such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, which has a greater impact on consumption. As a typical durable goods, the consumption recovery rhythm of cars is expected to be later than that of 2020q1 epidemic.
Impact on the market of the automobile sector: 1) performance of the automobile sector during the 2020q1 epidemic: Q1 with concentrated outbreak of the epidemic performed poorly (1 / 20-3 / 31 down 12.5%). The rapid recovery of consumption after the epidemic control made the automobile sector rise sharply, rising 46.9% in the second half of 2020, outperforming the market by 21.7pct. 2) The inflection point of this round of epidemic has not yet arrived. It is expected that the recovery pace of consumption after the epidemic is slower than that after 2020q1, and 2022q2 is still the process of bottoming out. 3) The market will start in the second half of the year. ① after continuous adjustment, the valuation is relatively reasonable. At present, PE and Pb are at the quantile of 36% and 49% respectively in the past three years. ② the demand for new energy vehicles continues to grow rapidly and the accumulated epidemic situation is gradually released. After the pressure on the cost side is improved, the medium and long-term logic gradually dominates.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, Q2 sector is expected to remain under pressure; We expect that the market of automobile sector will start in the second half of the year: 1) complete vehicle: after continuous adjustment, the valuation is relatively reasonable. Considering the prospect of independent rise, it is suggested to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal car, Xiaopeng car, Weilai car, Geely car, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; 2) Auto parts: we suggest to focus on three directions: ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Intelligent automobile industry chain, Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ; ③ Lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) .
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic on the automotive industry exceeded expectations; Car sales are less than expected; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected.
