The central bank released the financial data of March 2022.
The new social finance exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of stock social finance rebounded. In March, the new social financing scale in a single month was 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year, and the new scale exceeded the expected value of 3.7 trillion yuan. By the end of March 2022, the stock of social finance scale was 325.64 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.55%. The growth rate increased by 0.34 percentage points over the previous month, realizing a rebound.
The high growth of credit and government bonds and the significant improvement of off balance sheet financing are the core drivers of the social finance rebound. Specifically, in March 2022, RMB loans increased by 3.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 481.7 billion yuan year-on-year, and the new scale exceeded the same period in 20182021; Government bonds increased by 705.2 billion yuan, an increase of 392.1 billion yuan year-on-year, continuing a rapid growth rate; New corporate bond financing was 389.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7 billion yuan year-on-year; The domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises increased by 95.8 billion yuan, an increase of 17.5 billion yuan year-on-year; Off balance sheet financing increased by 213.3 billion yuan, an increase of 426.2 billion yuan year-on-year, and became regular again, with a significant improvement.
Short term loans and bill financing continued to increase, and medium and long-term loans of enterprises turned positive year-on-year. By the end of March 2022, the loan balance of financial institutions was 201.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, the same as that of the previous month; Financial institutions increased RMB loans by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 400 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly affected by the continuous increase in short-term loans and bill financing and the narrowing of the decline in medium and long-term loans. In March, short-term loans increased by 1.19 trillion yuan in a single month, an increase of 294.7 billion yuan year-on-year; The new bill financing was 318.7 billion yuan, an increase of 471.2 billion yuan year on year; New medium – and long-term loans reached 1.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 235.6 billion yuan, a sharp decrease from trillion yuan in February. The performance of new loans in the residential sector remains weak. In March, the resident Department added 753.9 billion yuan of credit in a single month, a year-on-year decrease of 394 billion yuan; Among them, the newly increased short-term loans were 384.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 139.4 billion yuan; Medium and long-term loans increased by 373.5 billion yuan, an increase of 250.4 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Enterprise short-term loans continued to increase, and the growth rate of medium and long-term loans became positive. In March, the enterprise sector increased RMB loans by 2.48 trillion yuan in a single month, an increase of 880 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, short-term loans increased by 808.9 billion yuan, an increase of 434.1 billion yuan year-on-year; Medium and long-term loans increased by 1.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.8 billion yuan year-on-year.
The financial data in March rebounded sharply compared with that in February, confirming the continuation of the broad credit pattern and the improvement of the banking business environment. Recently, the national standing committee continued to emphasize stable growth. At the same time, it was required to make timely and flexible use of various monetary policy tools such as refinancing, give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure, and increase support for the real economy, including strengthening the implementation of prudent monetary policy, making good use of inclusive small and micro loan support tools Improve the level of financial services for new citizens, optimize affordable housing financial services, ensure the financing needs of key projects, promote the rapid growth of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry, and set up two special refinancing projects of scientific and technological innovation and inclusive pension. Overall, the tone of steady growth continues, cross cyclical and counter cyclical policies are adjusted or overweight, and the wide credit pattern is strengthened to cope with the increasing complexity and uncertainty of China’s external environment and help the economy operate within a reasonable range. Affected by relevant policies, the business environment of the banking industry is expected to improve steadily, contributing to the release of credit and non-performing risks.
It is suggested that we continue to be optimistic about the restoration of the banking industry under the environment of stable growth and wide credit, pay attention to the low allocation value of valuation, and maintain the “recommended” rating. In terms of individual stocks, follow two main lines: pay attention to the low allocation value of banking sector and individual stock valuation, and follow two main lines: (1) high quality urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks with significant location advantages, strong momentum of table expansion and asset quality maintaining the leading level in the industry. Recommend Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) ) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) ( Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) ); (2) For high-quality wealth management firms that benefit from the medium and long-term track of wealth management, with forward-looking strategic layout and remarkable transformation results, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) ( China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) ) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ( Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ) are recommended.
The risk indicates that the macroeconomic growth is lower than expected, resulting in the risk of deterioration of asset quality.
