\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 959 Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) )
In 2021q4, revenue resumed growth, optimistic about structural optimization driving long-term performance growth, and maintained the “buy” rating
In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 3.606 billion yuan (- 1.46%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 283 million yuan (- 33.81%). In 2021q4, the revenue was 1.242 billion yuan (+ 6.83%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 94 million yuan (- 11.13%). Considering that the price of raw materials is still high, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 331 / 402 / 478 million yuan (the original value of 20222023 is 449 / 555 million yuan), the corresponding EPS will be 2.11/2.57/3.06 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 20.5/16.9/14.2 times. In the long run, we are optimistic about the performance repair under the slowdown of cost pressure and the adjustment and upgrading of product structure, and maintain the “buy” rating.
The expansion of channels and categories has achieved initial results, and small household appliances such as personal care, mother and baby have increased significantly
In terms of business, in 2021, the company’s business revenue of small kitchen appliances / small household appliances / other small household appliances was – 5.9% / + 1.28% / + 96.14% year-on-year respectively, and other small household appliances such as personal care and mother and baby increased brightly. In terms of sub regions, China’s / foreign sales revenue in 2021 was – 2.15% / + 9.92% year-on-year respectively. The expansion of overseas market was steadily promoted, and the advantageous categories such as yogurt machine and egg steamer have entered the list of Meiya bestseller; The pressure on China’s market revenue is mainly due to the decline in online demand. In 2021, the company realized revenue in online market (- 2.37%). Tiktok and Kwai tiktok are also actively expanding new channels. We expect 2021Q4 company to vibrate GMV to exceed 40 million yuan, and achieve rapid growth. Grandpa:
The optimization of product structure + the increase of self operated proportion support the stability of gross profit, and the short-term performance is under pressure due to the impact of expense rate
In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 32.78% (+ 0.35pcts). The gross profit margin of 2021q4 was 29.88% (+ 5.24pcts), which improved significantly in a single quarter, mainly due to the company’s active promotion of online self operation mode and the optimization of product structure under the product high-end strategy. On the expense side, the sales / management / R & D expense ratio in 2021 was 15.34% / 3.63% / 3.60% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.31pcts / + 0.28pcts / + 0.73pcts respectively. The increase in the sales expense ratio was mainly due to the increase in market promotion expenses under the self operated mode. Under the comprehensive influence, the company’s net interest rate in 2021 is 7.86% (-3.84pcts).
Organizational structure adjustment, strengthen the development of personal care, mother and child care, and continue to be optimistic about the optimization of product structure to drive the improvement of performance
At the end of 2021, the company announced the addition of baby and child products division, reflecting that the company will continue to focus on personal care, mother and child care. At the same time, the company plans to issue convertible bonds for the construction of smart small household appliance manufacturing base. Looking forward to the future, the next nursing and maternal and infant categories under the adjustment of organizational structure are expected to drive revenue growth, and it is optimistic that structural optimization will drive performance improvement.
Risk tip: the recovery of industry demand is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The development of new categories is less than expected.
