\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 305 Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) )
Key investment points
The sales volume of CNC machine tools increased rapidly, and the orders in hand were full
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 254 million yuan (year-on-year + 28%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 73 million yuan (year-on-year + 107%); Deduct net profit not attributable to parent company of 26 million yuan (YoY + 28%). Among them, the business income of high-end CNC machine tools was 233 million yuan (year-on-year + 36%), accounting for 92% of the revenue. The annual sales volume of high-grade CNC machine tools was 126 (year-on-year + 33%), and the average unit price was 1.85 million yuan (basically stable year-on-year). The company’s new orders in 2021 totaled 330 million yuan (year-on-year + 42%); From January to February 2022, the production and warehousing of five axis linkage CNC machine tools were + 350% year-on-year, and the delivery volume of the whole machine was + 72.7% year-on-year; The total amount of new orders and winning contracts was 49.05 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 60%, and the orders in hand were full.
The gross profit margin increases at a high level, and the period expense rate has a great impact on profitability
The gross profit margin in 2021 was 43.1% (year-on-year + 1.0pct), which still increased against the background of rising raw material prices. The main reasons are as follows: 1) CNC systems and most key components are mainly self-made; 2) The company made a detailed production plan and prepared goods in advance at the beginning of 2021. In 2021, the net profit margin of sales was 28.7% (year-on-year + 11.0pct), and the net profit margin deducted was 10.4%. The reasons for the low net profit margin deducted by the company are as follows: 1) there are many national allocation projects, and the national allocation funds obtained are included in non recurring profits and losses; 2) The company is in a period of rapid development, with large investment but small income scale, so the expenses in relevant periods have a great impact on the net interest rate. With the expansion of the income scale of subsequent companies, the scale effect appears, and the profit margin is expected to improve.
Continue to increase research and development, and launch new products one after another
In 2021, the company invested 78 million yuan in R & D, accounting for 30.59% of the operating revenue. In terms of products, the horizontal milling and turning compound machining center for hexahedron machining of new energy vehicle motor has achieved the first sales; The development of five axis milling and grinding compound machining center has been completed; Various models such as horizontal boring and milling compound machining center have also completed R & D and entered the manufacturing stage. In addition, the company’s flexible automation production line business has made a breakthrough. Four contracts were signed in 2021, with a total amount of 31.175 million yuan.
The development of civil market is smooth, and we are optimistic about the growth under the release of production capacity
With leading technology and brand effect, the company has a high repurchase rate of new orders in 2021, and the repurchase rate of the whole machine is more than 40%. Under the continuous procurement of the original aerospace and other customers, the company actively expanded the downstream Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) , and achieved zero breakthrough in the fields of semiconductor wafer thinning machine, petrochemical pump valve and so on. At the same time, the civil market has been developed smoothly. In 2021, the company’s new orders in non aerospace fields accounted for more than 50%. In 2021, the company’s fund-raising and investment project of increasing the production capacity of 500 five axis machine tools was carried out smoothly; At the same time, the production base of motorized spindles has been established in Yinchuan, and it is expected that the annual output can reach 400; In 2022, the company expects to increase the production capacity to 250300 units, and is optimistic about the growth of the company under the rapid release of production capacity.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is in a period of rapid development. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 1.13 (up 20%) / 1.61 (up 27%) / 211 million yuan respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 53 / 37 / 28 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the production expansion plan is less than expected, and the business volume is less than expected.
